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After cruising through the first three games of the 2024 NBA Finals, the Boston Celtics suffered an embarrassing 38-point beatdown at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks.
With a 3-0 series edge heading into Monday’s Game 4 last Friday, it is possible the Celtics were more focused on securing the Finals at home in Game 5, especially if they got down by double digits early in the contest.
However, losing by nearly 40 points to the Mavericks, a team that previously had their confidence completely ripped away, could complicate matters for Boston moving forward.
Is this the end of the line for the Mavericks, or did they figure something out in Game 4 that could propel them to an unlikely and historic 0-3 comeback in the NBA Finals?
As the series moves back to Boston on Monday night for Game 5, let’s break down the matchup and make a prediction and pick.
NBA Finals: Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 5 odds
Spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-105), Celtics -6.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Mavericks +220, Celtics -275
Total: Over 209.5 (-110), Under 209.5 (-110)
Odds via BetMGM
NBA Finals: Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 5 prediction
Boston enters Game 5 as a sizable 6.5-point home favorite despite being decimated in its last game against Dallas.
In Game 4, Dallas shot 50.5% from the field, 40.5% from 3-point land and outrebounded the Celtics by 21, which included 13 offensive boards. Furthermore, the Mavericks finally found success inside again, scoring 60 of their 122 points in the paint.
The Celtics gave up their second-most points this postseason (122), only six points fewer than they allowed in an overtime game against Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston’s interior defense was completely nonexistent; the absence of Kristaps Porzingis undoubtedly contributed to its struggles on that end of the floor.
Still, throughout the playoffs, we have seen plenty of games in which Boston has been physical at the point of attack and stayed in front of its opponents, not giving them a chance to get their feet in the paint.
The Celtics have also proven they are a top-tier rebounding team this season, ranking sixth in defensive rebounding percentage, so Game 4 should be viewed as more of an outlier in that regard.
That physicality and attention to detail on the defensive end of the floor will be back in Game 5, as the Celtics have an opportunity to secure their 18th NBA Championship. If this were the first or second time the Celtics had played without Porzingis, there would be a bit of a concern with potential adjustments and questions about their rotations.
But Boston has played most of this postseason without its 7-foot-3 unicorn forward, winning 10 of its 12 games in his absence.
NBA Finals: Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 5 pick
Coach Joe Mazzulla has also proven capable of making the necessary adjustments between games, and that will happen again as the C’s return to TD Garden with a chance to close out the Finals.
Boston will hit the reset button and return to prioritizing boxing out and perimeter physicality, as well as eliminating corner 3s and easy lobs.
Ultimately, there has been an overreaction to Game 4’s beatdown, but that just gives us a better price entering Game 5.
Pick: Celtics -6.5 (-105, BetMGM)
