Romania’s retail sales volume index increased by 0.4% y/y in April 2025, after the annual growth rate had decelerated to +3.5% y/y in Q1 from an average of +8.6% y/y in 2024, according to data published by the statistics office INS. Sales readings will likely remain weak in May, reflecting households’ concerns ahead of the presidential elections, which may have laid the groundwork for an economic crisis (one that the authorities have yet to avoid).
In seasonally and workday-adjusted terms, the retail sales remained within a narrow band for the seventh consecutive month.
On a broader perspective, retail sales in Romania stagnated in 2023 after households absorbed the shock of the war in Ukraine, higher energy prices, and higher inflation in general in 2022. A step-like increase is visible in January 2024 – but this coincides with a change in methodology, and we suspect an imperfect backward recalculation that artificially resulted in a high growth rate (retail sales) through 2024.
On the other hand, the dynamics of the net wages are consistent with buoyant retail sales: the net wage increased by a real 7.4% y/y in 2024 and by a real 4.8% y/y in Q1 2025.
Looking at the market segments, the food sales have demonstrated a downward trend over the past year to April 2025, when they posted 0% y/y growth (-2.0% y/y in Q1). Non-food sales slowed down in the past half a year and advanced by a mere 0.8% y/y in April.
The retail sales are about 30% above the 2021 average after the steep advance seen in 2024. As an indicator of consumer confidence, the recent stagnation reflects the cautious stance of households.
The car fuel sales show no consistent trend, remaining around 110% of the 2021 average for more than four consecutive years.
iulian@romania-insider.com
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