NBC polling analyst says Kamala Harris’ 5-point advantage in previous poll is ‘gone’

NBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki said that some polling numbers for Vice President Kamala Harris have “completely reversed” in recent days.

Harris was once touted by many of her supporters as the inevitable winner of the 2024 election, but with less than a month before the election, the race appears to be a dead heat. NBC “Today” host Savannah Guthrie discussed how recent polling shows the race “deadlocked.”  

Guthrie then did a deep dive on the numbers with Kornacki and said, “I mean, the top line is the 5-point advantage that Kamala Harris had in our last poll is gone. What’s behind that shift?”

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Kornacki agreed, contrasting previous polling that took place after the first Trump-Harris debate versus now, amid Harris’ media blitz. The polling showed Trump had risen from 44% to 48%, whereas Harris had declined from 49% to 48%. 

In one noteworthy poll, however, Harris had declined significantly, as Kornacki noted “some things that have changed in that time. I think this might be the biggest for Harris.”

“We just asked the basic image perception people have, is it positive or negative of these candidates? The Trump number’s always been somewhere in this territory,” he said as he gestured at Trump having a 43% positive and 51% negative rating. “In fact, this is a little bit high for him, believe it or not.”

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But he said that Harris’ numbers have notably changed. 

“But look at Harris, 43 positive, 49 negative. The significance, we polled this a month ago. She was 48% positive and 45 negative. She was above water, as they say. That’s completely reversed. It now looks very similar to Trump’s. That’s a pretty big shift when you’re talking about a race this close,” he added. 

He then noted further polling indicating that only a quarter of families say Biden-era policies are helping their family, whereas 45% say they are “hurting” them. 

“And then here’s the interesting twist. We also asked folks, ‘Think back to when Donald Trump was president. Did his policies help or hurt your family?’ And look at the difference, 44% helping, 31 hurting. Trump’s — the retrospective, you would say, opinion of Trump’s presidency among voters, arguably higher now than when he was president,” Kornacki said. 

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