The Grammy screening committee, which has the final say on where albums best fit in the Grammy process, placed Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter and Post Malone’s F-1 Trillion in the best country album category. They are competing with 77 other albums for just five slots on the final ballot. Nominations will be announced on Nov. 8.
Both have a good chance of making it. Post was widely praised for coming to Nashville and getting to know the city’s people and its ways. Beyoncé didn’t do that, as Luke Bryan, HARDY and others have pointed out, but her album put a bright spotlight on the contributions Black artists have made to country music – contributions that have too often been overlooked.
Beyoncé is vying to become only the second Black artist to be nominated for best country album. Mickey Guyton was nominated in 2022 for her debut studio album, Remember Her Name. (Important note: The Grammys didn’t have this category in the 1970s, when Charley Pride was at his peak.)
Beyoncé didn’t receive any CMA nominations, but that doesn’t doom her album’s chances here. The Chicks were nominated for (and won) five Grammys for their 2006 album Taking the Long Way, even though they, likewise, had been shut out in that year’s CMA nominations. (The Chicks were nominated for vocal group of the year at the CMAs the following year, a period that encompassed their Grammy sweep.)
Beyoncé’s shutout in the CMA nominations received a lot of attention. Some Grammy voters may embrace her in part to make up for that perceived snub. (“Make-up voting” is real thing. Many believe Ben Affleck’s failure to land an Oscar nomination for best director for Argo helped that 2012 film win best picture.)
Four of the five albums that were nominated for the CMA award for album of the year are eligible here: Luke Combs’ Fathers & Sons, Cody Johnson’s Leather, Kacey Musgraves’ Deeper Well and Chris Stapleton’s Higher.
Stapleton and Musgraves are both repeat winners of the Grammy for best country album. Stapleton has won the award three times; Musgraves has won it twice. Fun fact: If Stapleton wins once more, he’ll move into a tie as the act with the most wins in the history of the category. And who will he tie? The Chicks.
Combs has yet to win the Grammy for best country album, but he was nominated for a previous album, Growin’ Up. Johnson has yet to be nominated in the category.
The fifth CMA nominee for album of the year, Jelly Roll’s Whitsitt Chapel, vied for a Grammy nod for best country album last year, but it ultimately wasn’t nominated. (It of course is not Grammy-eligible again this year.)
That’s six albums that have an excellent shot at a nomination, which is one more than the number of available slots. (The Grammys expand the field beyond five only in the event of ties. Since 2000, there have been six nominees twice – in 2004 and 2012.)
And there more “can’t-miss” albums, so clearly some won’t make it.
Like F-1 Trillion, Lainey Wilson’s Whirlwind came out too late for this year’s CMAs, but it is eligible here. Wilson’s previous album, Bell Bottom Country, won the Grammy for best country album and was voted album of the year at both the CMA and ACM Awards.
Zach Bryan’s The Great American Bar Scene would have been a strong contender – his previous album, Zach Bryan, was nominated in this category last year – but the unconventional star didn’t submit it for Grammy consideration.
Shaboozey’s Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going may not be a “can’t-miss,” but it’s a strong contender. It houses the smash “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” which has topped the Billboard Hot 100 for 13 weeks, longer than any other single so far this year. More importantly in the context of its chances here, it topped Country Airplay for seven weeks.
Megan Moroney’s Am I Okay? also has a shot. Moroney is also vying for a nomination as best new artist. Other albums by best new artist hopefuls on the best country album eligibility list include Dasha’s What Happens Now? and Nate Smith’s Through the Smoke.
Several other albums by past Grammy nominees for best country album are in the running – Jason Aldean’s Highway Desperado, Kenny Chesney’s Born, Tim McGraw’s Poet’s Resume, Willie Nelson’s The Border, Thomas Rhett’s About a Woman and Sturgill Simpson (Johnny Blue Skies)’s Passage Du Desir.
Various Artists albums are rarely nominated in this category, but there are two notable contenders this year – Petty Country: A Country Music Celebration of Tom Petty and A Tribute to The Judds. Only two Various Artists albums have been nominated in this category; both won. Timeless: Hank Williams Tribute won in 2002. Livin’, Lovin’, Losin’: Songs of the Louvin Brothers won in 2004.
Another high-profile Various Artists album, Twisters: The Album, isn’t in the running here. It’s vying for a nomination for best compilation soundtrack for visual media.
Our Fearless Forecast
So, which five albums have the best chance to be nominated in this Grammy category? This is tough, but here’s my prediction (alphabetically by artist): Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter, Post Malone’s F-1 Trillion, Kacey Musgraves’ Deeper Well, Chris Stapleton’s Higher and Lainey Wilson’s Whirlwind.
