Last weekend saw one of the closest box office battles of the summer, with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga only narrowly inching out a victory over The Garfield Movie (by less than a million bucks). With very little in the way of competition this weekend, the orange, animated feline is set to overtake Miller’s post-apocalyptic actioner, thanks mainly to weekend family matinees.
Given how mediocre Furiosa’s box office start was (with many predicting it killed the chance of us ever getting Mad Max: The Wasteland), all eyes will be on the film’s hold this weekend. Given the reviews and word of mouth, I predict a 40% decline, which would put it in the $16-17 million range. To note, during its run, Mad Max: Fury Road never posted a drop over 50% until late in its run. Hopefully, word of mouth means the film will have a decent enough finish at the box office, although Garfield will certainly make more money. I’m expecting that one to make $18 million.
The one sliver of good news for the holdovers at the box office is that nothing’s really opening this weekend that has a shot at a top-five finish, with the drama Ezra not really getting much the way of publicity despite good reviews for its star-studded cast (our review will be up tomorrow). Disney’s Young Woman and the Sea, starring Daisy Ridley, is only getting a limited release. Paramount’s IF should be able to hold on to third place with $10 million, while Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes will likely make about $8 million, with Fall Guy in fifth place with $3 million.
As such, the box office reporting this week will be a bit of a drag, unless something unexpected happens, like Furiosa suddenly turning into a word of mouth hit. Things should pick up next weekend with the release of Bad Boys: Ride or Die, which is getting great word-of-mouth.
Here are our predictions:
The Garfield Movie: $18 million
Furiosa: $16 million
IF: $10 million
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $8 million
The Fall Guy: $3 million
What do you think will rule the box office this weekend? Let us know in the comments!
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