Iga Świątek has responded to a slow start to the French Open to looking like the outright favorite she was listed before the start.
Świątek has demolished the competition since a close call in the second round against Naomi Osaka, winning three straight matches while dropping eight games across them, including a 6-0, 6-2 quarterfinals win against No. 6 Markéta Vondroušová.
Świątek faces No. 3 Coco Gauff in the semifinals in hopes of making a fourth semifinals in five years.
The No. 1 player in the world has owned this head-to-head matchup against the U.S. Open champion Gauff, winning 10 of 11 matches, will that continue on Thursday?
Here’s our full betting preview.
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Moneyline
Total: 18.5 (Over -116/Under -116)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
It’s staggering to see Świątek listed as a -850 favorite against the No. 3 player in the world, but that is the gap between Swiatek and the top players on clay right now. The winner of three of the last four French Open titles is playing at her peak and should have little issue overpowering Gauff yet again.
So, what’s the best way to bet it?
I believe it’s the under on games.
Gauff hasn’t put her first serve in at greater than 60% since the first round, but no player has made the No. 3 player pay. However, that’ll be a different story against Świątek, who is converting 53% of her break point opportunities.
When the two players met in Rome a few weeks ago, a 6-4, 6-3 win for Świątek, Gauff was able to fend off seven of 11 break points. However, given Świątek’s prowess on return, I believe she will be able to convert at a far higher clip if Gauff isn’t able to raise her first-serve percentage.
While that meeting on May 16th squeaked over the total of 19.5 games, I believe that the current form of Świątek is even better and she can find more separation on the scoreboard.
PICK: UNDER 18.5 Games (-116)
REED WALLACH
Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.
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