When the Belmont Stakes starting gate slams open Saturday, most eyes will be on the horses still basking in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes limelight.
Look instead at the horse poised to emerge from those colts’ shadows.
Mindframe won’t be hard to see. He’ll race under part-owner Mike Repole’s silks, which are bright blue and orange, and break from post 10 in a 10-horse field, closest to the camera. In the hands of jockey Irad Ortiz, he could influence the early pace or be positioned for a late surge. The colt has a big chance of giving Ortiz his third Belmont Stakes win and trainer Todd Pletcher his fifth.
It’s a strong, intriguing and different edition of the 157-year-old race.
It’s being run for the first time at Saratoga Race Course, north of New York City, while Belmont Park undergoes renovations, and being run at 1 1/4 miles instead of the traditional 1 1/2 miles, to avoid starting on a turn on Saratoga’s 1 1/8-mile track.
It’s the first Belmont since 2013 to match winners of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, in Mystik Dan and Seize the Grey, and it gives a serious shot at redemption to the Derby runner-up, Sierra Leone, and a sneaky-good Derby eighth-place finisher, Honor Marie.
But it’s the new, brown face, Mindframe, who makes this an inviting puzzle.
The Maryland-bred son of 2014 Florida Derby winner Constitution and the stakes-winning mare Walk of Stars (a daughter of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense) didn’t run in the Derby or Preakness – or anywhere until late March, because of what Pletcher has called “baby setbacks.”
His two starts have been sensational: a 13 3/4-length win from slightly off the pace in a 7-furlong race at Gulfstream Park, and a 7 1/2-length romp on the lead in a 1 1/16-mile race at Churchill Downs. The performances were footnotes on those days, because Mindframe was competing on the undercards of the Florida Derby runaway by Fierceness and the Kentucky Derby thriller that went to Mystik Dan. In any case, Mindframe’s victories came against defenseless maiden and optional-claiming opponents at shorter distances, so it’s an open question what he’ll do if he finds himself in a battle against top-class horses in the homestretch of a 1 1/4-mile race.
Betting on races for 3-year-olds, though, is betting on potential, and Mindframe has plenty of that. His 1:21.72 clocking for 7 furlongs earned speed figures of 103 from Andy Beyer and 106 from Brisnet (each the fastest among Belmont entrants), and 108 from Equibase (nearly matching Mystik Dan’s and Sierra Leone’s 109 for the Kentucky Derby).
At least five horses have the credentials to win the Belmont.
Seize the Grey is the other horse coming in with a two-race winning streak. Drawing the No. 1 post position gives him a straight shot at the lead, though it’s not certain he’ll clear Dornoch and it’s unlikely he’ll get the easy front-running trip he had in the Preakness. He’s 8-1 on the Saratoga morning line.
Mystik Dan has little to prove after winning the Derby and holding on for second in the Preakness and wouldn’t be racing for the third time in five weeks if trainer Ken McPeek didn’t think he’s primed for it. He’s 5-1 on the morning line.
Sierra Leone rallied from 18th to second in the Derby, and he or third-place Forever Young could have beaten Mystik Dan if they hadn’t been playing roller derby down the stretch. As a Derby runner who skipped the Preakness, he fits the profile of the winners of five of the past 10 Belmonts held on a normal schedule. He’s the 9-5 favorite.
Honor Marie is one to include in multi-horse bets after he had a rough go of it in the Derby but advanced from 20th to 10th in the fourth quarter-mile and finished eighth. He’s 12-1.
Related Articles
Horse racing notes: Bob Baffert-trained fillies head Summertime Oaks
Historic Saratoga ready for its Triple Crown debut with Belmont
Seize the Grey draws inside post for Belmont Stakes
Santa Anita horse racing consensus picks for Sunday, June 2, 2024
Santa Anita horse racing consensus picks for Saturday, June 1, 2024
Horse Racing Nation handicapper Ed DeRosa points out something that works against come-from-behind horses like Sierra Leone and Honor Marie: Saratoga has held 36 races at 1 1/4 miles since 2015; only one eventual winner was last at any point.
Mindframe is 7-2 on the morning line. That might seem low for a non-stakes winner with two lifetime starts taking on proven, experienced horses. But if he fulfills his promise and wins, this might the last chance to get that high a payoff on him.
My picks: 1. Mindframe, 2. Sierra Leone, 3. Mystik Dan.
Follow Kevin Modesti on X (formerly Twitter) @Kevin Modesti.
