If the pollsters have it right, the Conservatives need a

The desire to see the back of the Tories seems to outweigh any considerations of policy – or whether Labour will actually deliver much positive change

“Nothing has changed”: those were the ill-fated words during Theresa May’s 2017 campaign. Things certainly did change, though – a large polling lead almost evaporated by polling day and a hung parliament was returned.

In 2024, Rishi Sunak desperately needs a similar shift. But so far the British public seem unmoved. Voting intention, as measured by the opinion polls, remains much as it was when the election was called. Those intentions would see Sunak falling to something ranging between a significant and a historic defeat.