ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (KRQE) – New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham has set the state on a path toward decreased emissions. Several years ago, she signed an executive order to decrease the state’s emissions by 45% by the year 2030. So, how is that going?
“While New Mexico made some progress this past session, the state is likely still far off-track to reach its climate goals,” Alex DeGolia, the director for state legislative and regulatory affairs at the Environmental Defense Fund, told KRQE News 13.
To see if New Mexico was on track to meet the governor’s goals, the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) ran an analysis to come to that conclusion. Their report, published in September of 2023, estimates that New Mexico may only reduce emissions by about 13% from 2005 levels by the year 2030. That’s well below the goal set by the governor. Since the report, recent progress has moved the needle some, but EDF still stands by their conclusion from the 2023 report, that the state is still not on track.
“There are several targets that are in place for New Mexico, one established by executive order by Governor Lujan Grisham, and another that is established by New Mexico being a member of the U.S. Climate Alliance,” says Michael Bueno, the senior manager for state climate policy and strategy at the Environmental Defense Fund. “What we found is that the state is not on currently on track to meet those targets.”
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The Environmental Defense Fund projects New Mexico won’t hit its emissions goal by 2030.
The Environmental Defense Fund’s projection is only an estimate, which is based on estimating state-level emissions from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data, the methodology of which comes from the climate researchers at a company called Rhodium Group. There’s some inherent uncertainty in the results, but Bueno says the estimate does give a sense of whether New Mexico is on-track under current conditions with three potential scenarios.
For example, as oil and gas prices change, New Mexico’s oil and gas production levels tend to change in response. So, estimates under different scenarios account for potential market changes. And even under the best-case-scenario estimate, New Mexico isn’t projected to hit its emissions goal, according to the Environmental Defense Fund.
What might prevent the state from reaching its goal?
When it comes to statewide emissions, there is no one single agency or rule that accounts for New Mexico’s progress. Michael Bueno notes that in fact, the state’s climate goals aren’t quite settled matters.
“One thing to account for is that these goals were set by executive orders, so they’re nothing that’s sort of written into law,” Bueno explains. “And it’s up to the directive of environmental agencies in the state to actually do the work to achieve those targets.”
Bueno says the state has made some progress. And other climate advocates agree.
“One of the nice things about New Mexico is that our leaders are really committed to solutions on global climate change,” says Camilla Feibelman, the director of the Sierra Club Rio Grande Chapter.
Feibelman says one of the reasons it’s so hard to implement real change that could push the state towards its goals is the powerful influence of the oil and gas industry – an industry whose taxes and fees account for around a third of the state government’s budget and an industry that employs New Mexicans.
“The big oil and gas extractors have done a really – I don’t know if I can call it a ‘good’ job – but an effective job of suppressing information about the impact of global climate change. Exxon has as much as admitted that they knew how bad the impact of fossil fuels on are climate would be and yet, they hid that science,” Feibelman says. Exxon has denied that they “knew.”
Regardless of the debate over fossil fuels, the simple economics of the oil and gas industry in New Mexico mean that it’s hard for the state to just turn its back on oil and gas, Feibelman adds.
“We are a state with a high amount of need. We have a high poverty rate. We have low success rates when it comes to health and education. There’s a feeling that if we can continue to receive this [oil and gas] money, that we can somehow solve these problems,” Feibelman says.
Despite record revenue from the oil and gas industry over the last decade, Feibelman says we haven’t yet seen the cash solve those social issues, although lawmakers are putting some of the revenue towards efforts to improve the state.
There has been progress since the 2023 analysis
“We need our government to act to protect us,” Feibelman says. “And in New Mexico, we are lucky to have a lot of that happening. For example, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham initiated nation-leading methane and ozone (or smog) rules that ban routine [gas] venting and flaring.”
The state’s environment department has also increased efforts to crack down on non-compliant oil and gas companies. The state agency is trying to better coordinate with federal regulators and has issued a handful of massive fines to oil and gas companies that have skirted the rules.
While progress might not be happening as fast as some had hoped, the state continues to take steps towards its goals. And some big initiatives have moved forward since the 2023 progress report.
For example, New Mexico recently received $25 million to help clean up orphaned oil and gas wells. And the New Mexico Supreme Court recently ruled that the state’s utilities can completely decouple their revenue plans from customers’ energy usage – essentially opening the door for new investments in renewable energy.
New Mexico has also put hundreds of thousands of dollars towards supporting clean transportation, and environmental watchdogs say the state has seen a decrease in the number of oil spills relative to the state’s high oil production.
New Mexico’s lawmakers have also put additional regulations into law. In 2024, lawmakers approved House Bill 41, which allows the state to create rules limiting the carbon intensity of gasoline and other fuels.
“There were important climate wins during the 2024 New Mexico legislative session, as well as regulatory wins in the fall of 2023,” Alex DeGolia from EDF said. “Some of the most notable include the adoption of Advanced Clean Trucks and Advanced Clean Cars 2 rules by the Environmental Improvement Board, and passage of bills directing adoption of a rule establishing a clean fuel standard.”
State leaders also focused on funding water projects and reuse in the state. In January, the governor announced a plan to secure water for the next 50 years.
Programs to secure federal funding for climate initiatives also help push New Mexico towards its goals. Still, EDF says more needs to be done.
“In short, the state has made progress on addressing climate pollution, but significantly more is needed if New Mexico intends to meet its climate commitments and do its part in limiting adverse climate impacts to protect New Mexicans now and in the future,” DeGolia says.
