The Boston Celtics are a win away from an 18th NBA title and can do it on the road in Dallas in Game 4 on Friday night.
The Celtics used a second-half surge to get past the Mavericks in Game 3 and will look to maintain its defensive form en route to a title-winning Game 4 on Friday night. While Kyrie Irving got on track in Game 3, Dallas couldn’t get a top effort from star Luka Doncic, who fouled out for the first time in his postseason career in the loss.
Despite leading 3-0, Boston is a small underdog on the road. Will Dallas extend the series back to Boston, or is this series a wrap?
Here’s the full betting preview:
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 211.5 (Over -106/Under -114)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Kristaps Porzinigs – foot – questionable
Luka Doncic – ankle, knee, chest – probable
Celtics vs. Mavericks Key Players to Watch
Jayson Tatum: Tatum isn’t scoring all that efficiently, shooting about 36% from the field, but has been able to do it all by averaging nearly nine rebounds and seven assists to go with 21 points per game. He has been invaluable on defense, playing the Mavericks’ lob threats at centers and switching on the likes of Doncic.
Can he put together one more comprehensive effort to lock in a title?
Luka Doncic: Doncic played his worst game of the series in Game 3, fouling out for the first time in his postseason career, shooting only 40% from the field with 27 points and six rebounds, each series lows, and six assists. Can Doncic lock in to start a historic comeback?
The Celtics were the better team heading into the series, and have justified it through three games, winning three games in different ways, and effectively ending the series. No team has come back from down 3-0 and I’m not counting on Dallas to be the first.
Boston has won with a barrage of three-point makes (Game 1), an off-shooting night (Game 2), and a come-from-behind effort in which the team pulled away late (Game 3).
The Celtics offense hasn’t been humming for the entirety of the series, but the defense has been at its best from the opening tip.
While Doncic has been able to score at times, and Irving found his footing in Game 3, the Boston defense has made most shots difficult for the two offensive-minded guards and shut off the water for everybody else on the Mavs.
Dallas role players are shooting 26% from three on an average of about 12 threes per game. The Celtics have dared the Mavericks to try and win two-on-five on offense and it hasn’t worked.
I ultimately think there are too many answers on the Boston side for this team that it is the preferred side. The Mavericks don’t have a way to generate clean looks for the likes of Doncic and Irving that a win would result from a cold shooting night from the Celtics.
However, Boston is only shooting 33.9% from three-point range this series while getting plenty of clean looks. The Celtics are winning while shooting more than two percent worse from distance in the regular season.
Boston is the clear side, I’ll bet on a sweep.
PICK: Celtics ML (-104)
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REED WALLACH
Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.
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