ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (KRQE) – More than half of New Mexicans feel less safe in the state than they did five years ago, according to an Emerson College/The Hill poll published Friday.
Nearly 1,000 New Mexicans from all over the state were polled about what issues are important to them in this election and how they feel about current candidates.
KRQE’s Political Analyst Gabe Sanchez weighed in about the results.
The poll shows New Mexicans are most concerned with the economy and crime, which Sanchez says follows national trends.
“Fresh numbers. Emerson College Poll, statewide, of New Mexico voters. The big topline everybody wants to know is the horserace on the presidential,” Sanchez said.
Emerson College Polling and The Hill asked almost a thousand New Mexicans, between Tuesday and Thursday, some key questions about the current political climate in the state and upcoming elections. The results showed Vice President Kamala Harris with a 10% lead over former President Donald Trump.
“Before that shift at the top of the ticket, I was getting calls that New Mexico might be in play for Former President Trump. So, I think that shows you just how much shifting away from President Biden to Kamala Harris has made for Democratic chances, not just here in New Mexico but nationally,” Sanchez said.
More than 53% of New Mexicans told pollsters they feel less safe than they did five years ago in the state. The top two things they identified as being the most important issue facing New Mexico are the economy by a wide margin, and then crime.
“At the end of the day, when you’re asking voters how they feel and how they care, they’re thinking about that at the very family micro-level: do I feel safer? Has my car gotten broken into recently? Has somebody that I know been burglarized? And I think that’s the way that voters in New Mexico are going to think about these issues, not necessarily from what the FBI statistics suggest for the state,” Sanchez said.
When asked how they feel about how Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is doing, 49% disapproved of her work as governor, and 41% approved; the rest had no opinion.
“Our governor’s rating has slipped quite a bit. Overall, we usually get concerned if our elected officials are under 50% approval rating,” Sanchez stated, “I was a little bit surprised to see the approval rating that low, but it’s consistent with what we’ve seen over time.”
The poll shows Democratic candidates leading in U.S. House and Senate races by 10 to 15 points. “Congressional District Two here in New Mexico is not important to us, but this is one of the top most watched races nationally and is projected to be razor thin like it has been the last three or four election cycles,” Sanchez said. That race, between U.S. Representative Gabe Vasquez and challenger Yvette Herrell, shows Vasquez leading by 10%, with 9% undecided, though Sanchez said it will likely be much closer.
The poll shows U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich with a 12% lead over challenger Nella Domenici: “Right where I would expect this race to be when we finish things out. I mean, Senator Heinrich has the name recognition; he’s got the credibility. His record is nearly spotless in terms of legislative, so he’s not vulnerable in any stretch of the imagination,” Sanchez explained.
The results of the poll were collected via cell phone, landline, and online responses. Data sets were based on 2024 voter modeling. The breakdown did follow the percentages of party breakdowns from Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.
The Hill is owned by KRQE’s parent company Nexstar.
