ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (KRQE) – New Mexico’s population has been growing for decades, but the latest prediction from the University of New Mexico Geospatial & Population Studies (UNM-GPS) office predicts that the state’s population will top out in 2035, and the state will see an aging population as well.
“Our population is experiencing a rapidly changing age structure. New Mexico will have a greater share of seniors in the coming years while also experiencing a decline in the number of children and emerging adults,” UNM-GPS Senior Research Scientist Jacqueline Miller said in a press release.
The researchers predict that the number of 85-year-olds and older in New Mexico will more than double in the next two decades, UNM-GPS said. By 2040, the state could have over 85,000 seniors over the age of 85.
An aging population is nothing new in New Mexico – or across the nation. Generally, people are living longer and having fewer kids.
Broadly, UNM-GPS researchers expect the state’s population reach a peak of about 2.16 million. That’s about 500,000 more than the current population revealed by the last decennial census.
“We are projecting some growth for New Mexico in the coming years, but the increases are small enough that minor shifts in births, deaths, and especially migration trends could easily push growth up or result in years of decline,” New Mexico State Demographer and UNM-GPS Director Robert Rhatigan said in a press release.
For the last 100 years, New Mexico has seen only population growth, but shifting birth and death rates, along with the ability for residents to move out of state, could change that pattern. The key to continued growth – or decline – will be the rate of international migration, UNM-GPS researchers say.
Over the last two decades or so, about 6,000 New Mexicans have moved out of the state, but that’s offset by the 12,000 people that have migrated from other nations into the state, UNM-GPS said. Those migrating individuals have also offset the state’s declining birth rate, so far.
