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After earning two vastly different victories in Sunrise, Fla., the Panthers head into Game 3 with an opportunity to take a 3-0 stranglehold in the Stanley Cup Final series.
They leaned on an otherworldly performance from goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky in the series opener and found their legs in Game 2, putting on a defensive clinic in even-strength play against the Oilers.
Florida opened as a -145 favorite in Game 2 but trended down to a consensus -125 before puck drop. Oddsmakers have made a significant adjustment for Thursday night’s Game 3, making Florida a +115 underdog.
This is particularly odd since road teams are a respectable 44-39 this postseason. However, it appears there is a “must-win” tax baked into the number. Since 2005, teams priced as a favorite after losing two straight games in the Stanley Cup Final are 18-2 for a +53.7% ROI.
With another tightly contested game anticipated, we’re moving off the side and zeroing in on a player prop. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Panthers vs. Oilers odds
Moneyline: Panthers +115, Oilers -135
Puck Line: Panthers +1.5 (-250), Oilers -1.5 (+200)
Total: Over 5.5 (-105), Under 5.5 (-115)
Odds via BetMGM
Panthers vs. Oilers prediction
The most important news entering Thursday’s matchup is that Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov seems highly probable to play. He left Game 2 after taking a high hit midway through the third period. The Oilers forward was a full participant in practice on Wednesday.
While the Panthers were fairly dominant in Game 2, it was a still a tight affair that swung on a couple of key moments. The same can be said for Game 1.
It seems probable the Oilers will get outplayed to some extent in the minutes in which Connor McDavid’s line and the Evan Bouchard-Mattias Ekholm pairing is not on the ice. Even still, through two games the Oilers lead high-danger chances 19-17 and own a 51.6% expected goal share.
A few minor improvements could be enough to allow the Oilers to find a better result. They will now benefit from holding last change (the home team gets to select who goes on the ice last), which could help coach Kris Knoblauch find better matchups for McDavid and his other superstars.
The Oilers also appear close to breaking through on the man advantage, and given how marginal the first two games have been, that could put them over the top. Their power play has moved the puck well in the series and has appeared close to breaking through. Edmonton has earned seven opportunities to work on the man advantage too, so if it is to click in that aspect it could be significant.
Evan Bouchard has scored six goals in the playoffs for the Oilers. (Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Panthers vs. Oilers best bet
Maybe home ice advantage in a near do-or-die spot will be enough to help find a winning result, and the historical data suggests as much. Still, it’s hard to endorse a bet on the Oilers at -135, as it still seems probable that the Bobrovsky and the Panthers’ elite defense will make this one into another nail-biter.
Backing Bouchard to score at +440 looks like an appealing way to tap into a better night for the Oilers in what should be a very entertaining matchup.
Bouchard’s dynamic shooting abilities have been on full display throughout the playoffs as he has scored six goals in 20 games. He’s had 25 shots attempts in the first two games of the Cup Final and 10 unblocked attempts. He has had some particularly excellent looks on the power play, including one of his trademark slap shots off the iron in Game 2.
Bouchard, who played 30:40 in Game 2, will likely see a ton of minutes again in this critical spot, especially with defenseman Darnell Nurse nursing an undisclosed injury.
Best bet: Evan Bouchard anytime goal (+440 at FanDuel)
