Mircea Geoană ranks first in voting intentions for the presidential elections, with a share of 26.7%, followed by Marcel Ciolacu who would get 17.8% and Elena Lasconi who would get 14.3 of the votes, according to a survey by INSCOP at the request of News.ro. Diana Şoșoacă is in fourth place in the ranking, ahead of Nicolae Ciucă and George Simion.
Almost three quarters of Romanians say that they will definitely go to vote. PSD and PNL voters, people over 30 years old, those with higher education and white-collar workers declare in a higher proportion than the average that they will definitely go to vote.
Round I
Reported to those who expressed their preference for a candidate from the list, regardless of whether they declare that they will vote for sure or not (85.8% of the total sample), 26.7% of voters would vote for Mircea Geoană – independent (compared to 23.7 % in May 2024), 17.8% for Marcel Ciolacu – PSD (18.2% in May), 14.3% for Elena Lasconi – USR (measured for the first time in 2024; comparatively, in May, Cătălin Drula registered 8.6% of the options ), and 13.4% for Diana Şoşoacă – SOS Romania (12.5% in May). For Nicolae Ciucă – PNL, 11.9% of voters would opt (11.5% in May), for George Simion – AUR 11.2% (13.5% in May), and for Kelemen Hunor – UDMR 3.4% (5.5% in May). 1.2% say they would vote for another candidate (0.8% in May). Dacian Cioloş was no longer measured in the June survey.
Runoff vote scenarios
Mircea Geoană vs. Marcel Ciolacu
If Marcel Ciolacu and Mircea Geoană reached the 1st and 2nd round of the presidential elections, 63.7% of respondents who chose a candidate would vote with the Deputy General Secretary of NATO, and 36.3% with the PSD leader.
Mircea Geoană vs. Nicolae Ciucă
If Mircea Geoană and Nicolae Ciucă were to reach the 1st and 2nd round of the presidential elections, 63.7% of those who expressed their preference for a candidate would vote for the Deputy General Secretary of NATO, and 36.3% for the PNL leader.
Marcel Ciolacu vs. Nicolae Ciucă
If Marcel Ciolacu and Nicolae Ciucă were to reach the second round of the presidential elections, 54.6% of those who expressed their preference for a candidate would vote for the PSD leader, and 45.4% for the PNL leader.
Mircea Geoană vs. Elena Lasconi
In a hypothetical confrontation in the 2nd round of the presidential elections between Mircea Geoană and Elena Lasconi, 66.2% of those who expressed their preference for a candidate would vote for the Deputy Secretary General of NATO, and 33.8% on the USR leader.
Marcel Ciolacu vs. Elena Lasconi
If Marcel Ciolacu and Elena Lasconi were to reach the second round of the presidential elections, 58% of those who expressed their preference for a candidate would vote for the current prime minister, and 42% for the USR leader.
Nicolae Ciucă vs. Elena Lasconi
If Nicolae Ciucă and Elena Lasconi were to reach the second round of the presidential elections, 51.6% of those who expressed their preference for a candidate would vote for the PNL leader, and 48.4% for the USR leader.
“The voting intention for the presidential elections surprises a series of changes in the options in the conditions where, compared to last month, Elena Lasconi from the USR is measured for the first time in 2024, and Dacian Cioloş was no longer measured because he announced that he was retiring from active political life. Under these conditions, the ranking undergoes certain changes. Mircea Geoană remains the leader in the voting options in the 1st round, with a higher percentage than in May, and leads by far in all the second round finals in which he was measured. The Deputy Secretary of NATO is followed by Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu who maintains his percentage of approximately 18%, almost 9 points away from the first place. On the 3rd place is Elena Lasconi with 3.5 percent less than Marcel Ciolacu. The USR leader is followed by Diana Şoşoacă, in slight growth, Nicolae Ciucă in stagnation and George Simion in decline. The novelty of the measurement from the end of June is Elena Lasconi, who registers in a better lane compared to the former USR president, also having a growth potential in the conditions of a significantly lower notoriety (60%), compared to the rest of the candidates who reach the majority their notoriety of 90% or above this percentage“, says Remus Ştefureac, director of INSCOP Research.
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