Southern California joblessness is now at its highest level since October 2021.
My trusty spreadsheet, filled with new state job figures, found the four-county unemployment rate was 6% across Southern California in July. That’s up sharply from 5.4% in June, and 4.9% a year earlier.
Ponder that joblessness averaged 4.7% in 2015-19 with the rate increasing 0.3 percentage points in a typical July in the 5-year period.
Unemployment stats, taken from a survey of households, showed 528,800 people in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties were out of work in July. That’s up 50,400 from June and up 97,900 in a year. The jobless count is also 25% above the 424,700 average of pre-pandemic 2015-19.
One large drag for jobseekers is that the broad economy – locally and nationally – has slowed. A prime culprit is the Federal Reserve’s battle with inflation using pricier financing. That has cooled a once overheated business climate.
But the growth in local unemployment may also reflect recently improved job prospects that can nudge Southern Californians to restart job searches.
A look at the survey of employers tells us Southern California bosses had 7.96 million at work locally in July. Yes, that’s down 45,500 from June. However, July is traditionally a weak month for staffing. Southern California averaged 54,000 job cuts in July in 2015-19.
Why the July job dips? Well, government educators taking summer break is a key reason for the slippage.
All Southern California government jobs totaled 979,900 in July – down 62,200 in a month contrasted with an average 68,700 cuts in 2015-19. Still, the government niche is up 23,800 workers in a year.
Conversely, Southern California fast-food restaurants had surprising hiring as the industry deals with a $20-an-hour minimum wage for giant chains as of April 1. Limited-service eateries employed 363,500 workers in July – up 1,900 in a month vs. average 1,000 July hires in 2015-19. This niche has grown by 4,100 in a year.
Now, take a longer lens and peek back 12 months to see total local bosses added 139,200 workers.
Ponder that hiring on a percentage basis and some strength is seen: The past year’s job growth was up 1.8% compared to flat staffing during the previous 12 months as the local economy digested the Fed’s sharp rate hikes.
Plus, the past year’s job growth is not far off the 2.2% hiring pace throughout 2015-19.
Industry swings
Let’s look at job changes in other key Southern California business sectors, ranked by one-year change …
Healthcare: 830,300 workers in July – that’s up 7,700 in a month compared to an average July with 4,240 hires in 2015-19. Jobs are up 36,400 in a year.
Social assistance: 503,200 workers – down 3,000 in a month vs. average 2,220 July cuts in 2015-19. It’s up 27,200 in a year.
Private education: 198,900 workers – down 2,500 in a month vs. average 8,960 cuts in 2015-19. It’s up 19,800 in a year.
Hotels/entertainment/recreation: 272,200 workers – up 2,000 in a month vs. average 2,040 July hires. It’s up 8,600 in a year.
Full-service eateries/food service: 342,600 workers – up 700 in a month vs. average 1,600 July cuts. It’s up 7,900 in a year.
Personal services: 270,400 workers – up 2,200 in a month vs. average 720 July cuts. It’s up 5,200 in a year.
Construction: 379,400 workers – up 3,400 in a month vs. average 4,820 July hires. It’s up 4,300 in a year.
Logistics-utilities: 807,100 workers – down 1,300 in a month vs. average 5,680 July hires. It’s up 4,000 in a year.
Retailing: 732,600 workers – up 3,000 in a month vs. average 3,740 July hires. It’s up 3,100 in a year.
Information: 216,200 workers – down 3,700 in a month vs. average 4,420 July cuts. It’s up 2,100 in a year.
Financial: 360,500 workers – up 1,200 in a month vs. average 2,500 July hires. It’s up 700 in a year.
Professional-business services: 1.13 million workers – up 5,800 in a month vs. an average 8,620 July hires. It’s up 400 in a year.
Manufacturing: 565,600 workers – down 700 in a month vs. flat in 2015-19. It’s down 8,500 in a year.
Regional differences
Here’s how the job market performed in the region’s key metropolitan areas …
Los Angeles County: 6.5% unemployment vs. 5.9% a month earlier; 5.6% a year ago; and 5.2% average in 2015-19. There’s 4.6 million workers, after dropping 30,800 in the month vs. July cuts averaging 36,100 in 2015-19. Up 73,900 in a year.
Orange County: 4.4% unemployment vs. 4% both a month earlier and in July 2023; and 3.6% average in 2015-19. There’s 1.7 million workers, after dropping 2,100 in a month vs. July average cuts of 6,900. Up 31,100 in a year.
Inland Empire: 5.8% unemployment vs. 5.3% a month earlier and a year ago; and 5.2% average in 2015-19. There’s 1.7 million workers, after dropping 12,600 in a month vs.July average 11,000 cuts. Up 34,200 in a year.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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