With their series loss against the Cardinals this past Sunday, the Cubs have now lost eight of their past nine series and fallen to last place in the National League Central Division.
How? The team was vibing. On April 26, the Cubs sat second place behind the Brewers. Surprisingly in April, the offense was led by outfielder Mike Tauchman, who was providing the most offensive output. In the early going, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch were consistently supplying power.
Where the offense really specialized early in the season was offensive production, with runners in scoring position (RISP). From the beginning of the season to April 26, the Cubs were one of the best teams in the league with RISP. They were third in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and second in weighted runs created plus (wRC+), led the league in isolated power (ISO) and were simply impressive and fun to watch with a 17-9 record.
Despite the exciting start to the season, key players such as Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson and Christopher Morel were flat out not playing up to par, with each of the three having an on-base plus slugging (OPS) under .710. This can become a problem when two of your highest paid players are being outperformed by a player making a fraction of their salary. And no, that is not a dock against Tauchman, he has been one of the Cubs’ most consistent hitters since he joined the team last spring.
Since April 26, the Cubs have completely disappeared with RISP. After being one of the top teams, the Cubs have slipped down in wOBA, wRC+ and ISO. Since coming back from injury, Suzuki has not looked consistently sharp. After having a .277 expected batting average (xBA) against the slider last year, it dropped to .168 this year. Suzuki’s kryptonite this season, the changeup, has accounted for a disastrous 44.4% strikeout rate.
Inconsistencies against pitch types have been a common trend among the entirety of the Cubs lineup. Happ is crushing the fastball but has batting averages that are lower against breaking and off-speed pitches. Swanson’s favorite pitch to hit throughout his entire career has been the fastball, but he has only a .175 batting average against the four-seam fastball this year. Not to mention, the Cubs are getting absolutely no production from their catchers, Miguel Amaya and Yan Gomes, who both have batting averages under .190.
On top of all the offensive issues, the Cubs defense has not been good either. It doesn’t look like reigning Gold Glove champions Swanson and Nico Hoerner will be repeating. The Cubs also have no discipline on the base paths.
At the start of the season, the bullpen was completely unwatchable. Adbert Alzolay, Jose Cuas, Drew Smyly and Luke Little were guys who were solid in 2023, but unfortunately the season has not gone as planned for many. Since April 30, however, the bullpen has been fair with 3.89 fielding independent pitching (FIP), but this still has not mattered because the Cubs do not have an arm that they could trust in the ninth inning.
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All of this comes at a major cost because outside of Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs starting rotation has been solid to say the least. Rookie sensation Shota Imanaga strutted the lowest earned run average (ERA) through a pitcher’s first nine career games since ERA became an official stat in 1913. Even though he just went down with an injury, Ben Brown had looked comfortable in any role manager Craig Counsell found him fit in, but as a starter, he had posted a 3.23 ERA through 39.0 innings, before going down with an injury. Jameson Taillon picked up right where he left off in 2023 posting a 3.08 ERA. Justin Steele has yet to pick up his first win this season but has looked sharp since returning from the injured list posting a 3.22 ERA.
This rotation of Imanaga, Assad, Brown, Taillon and Steele have pitched to a combined 2.92 ERA, which would rank best in the entire league. This is the best rotation the North Side of Chicago has seen in years, and unfortunately, there is no offense to back it up.
In 2022, the Cubs’ adjusted payroll total sat just over $151 million, and in 2024, that number jumped to more than $200 million. One should expect that if you increase your payroll salary by that wide of a margin, your team should be better. So far, the 2024 Cubs are the worst Cubs team with RISP over the past four years, in every single category, since Jed Hoyer took over as president of baseball operations.
So, is this a poorly built team, or are these Cubs just underperforming? Whatever the main issue is, even if the Cubs continue to lose series after series, the fans will still show up and pack Wrigley because they know the standard. They created it.
Vincenzo Mario Santoro is a student studying economics at Loyola University of Chicago.
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