Just days ahead of the first — and perhaps only — debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, polls show an extremely close race. As such, this debate is likely each candidate’s last best chance to turn the tides in their favor.
However, both Harris and Trump have vastly different objectives and goals they must achieve if they want to be considered the winner.
Certainly, the most pressure will be on Harris, who must show that she can present a strong, coherent and clear case for herself and her future administration.
The vice president, looking to turn the enthusiasm for her candidacy into a sustainable lead, needs to accomplish what she’s thus far been spared from doing, in no small part to Trump: deliver an unscripted, forceful defense of her record and a vision for the future of the country.
The unprecedented scenario that led to Harris’s position atop the Democratic ticket means voters have had little time to understand what a potential Harris administration would look like, specifically how it would resemble — or break from — the current administration.
Moreover, given the lengths the Harris campaign has gone to in order to avoid unscripted events, the VP stands to gain if she can show voters that she can outclass, or even hold her own, against Trump, particularly given his debate style of trying to get under opponents’ skin by talking them into submission.
Harris’s experience as a prosecutor looms large here. If she can successfully parry Trump’s attacks without any noteworthy gaffes — something few have ever done against Trump – she may walk away the winner no matter what else happens.
On the other side, for Trump to succeed, the roadmap is nearly identical to what it was ahead of his debate against President Biden.
Indeed, to sway moderate Republicans and independents, Trump needs to stay on message, focus on the issues, remain calm and avoid attacks on Harris’s race or gender.
A repeat of 2016 — the last time Trump debated a female opponent one-on-one — where he stalked behind former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and constantly interrupted, will not be received well among the moderate, suburban voters Trump needs to win swing states.
Quite simply, voters want to hear that Trump has actual plans for the challenges facing the country, particularly inflation, immigration, crime and foreign policy.
Polling data makes clear that despite Harris’s slight lead in many national and swing state polls, on the issues, voters generally prefer Trump. Thus, he needs to articulate specific plans rather than simply repeating, “This wouldn’t be happening if I was president.”
To be sure, Harris’s job should be considerably more challenging. The vice president did not face any primary debates, and her history of flip-flopping on key issues could be a stumbling block if Trump can successfully make her defend the vast differences between her well-established past positions and her more recent statements.
In that same vein, Harris will have to make the case for what, by all appearances thus far, would essentially be a continuation of the Biden administration.
To that end, given the Biden-Harris administration’s poor approval ratings on the economy (39%), foreign policy (38%), crime (38%), inflation (35%) and immigration (34%), per RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump stands to benefit if he can tie Harris to the administration in which she serves and has done little to distance herself from.
Harris will have to give concrete answers to questions about how she will address these issues, including how she will differ from President Biden, and stay away from vague, pre-scripted talking points.
One example would be on immigration, a unique vulnerability for Harris given her role as “border czar.” If Harris can change the narrative to focus on Trump’s intervention to kill earlier border bills — as she attempted during her interview with Dana Bash — voters may at least attribute some of the blame to Trump.
Further, it’s likely that Trump presses Harris on where she stands on the war in the Middle East, and she will need an answer that threads an increasingly small needle.
This has proven to be a significant wedge issue among Democrats. And while Harris admirably tacked to the center in her DNC speech and CNN interview, the Washington Post has reported that she would take a noticeably more harsh approach toward Israel than Biden.
If Trump can put Harris on the defensive on this issue, she runs the risk of alienating either progressives or moderate Democrats based on her answer. This includes considerable numbers of Jewish voters in key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan and Georgia.
That being said, Trump may actually have the harder path to victory in the all-important debate.
Indeed, Trump must demonstrate that he has the temperament for a second term, as well as middle-of-the-road solutions on the issues that will likely determine the election. In other words, Trump must refocus the election as issues-based, not a personality contest, which he would likely lose.
Trump must convince voters that his administration would deliver real results on inflation and strengthening the economy, stabilizing an increasingly dangerous geopolitical situation and providing safe cities through a comprehensive border security and immigration plan.
Thus far on the trail, Trump has largely been unable to stay focused on the issues, and his ad hominem attacks on Harris will look considerably worse when he is sharing a stage with the vice president.
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For a successful debate, Trump must find a way to avoid his impulse to attack Harris personally and work to tie her to an unpopular administration, frame her as a political chameleon given her flip-flopping and demonstrate that he has clear policies and solutions.
Put another way, if Trump wants to be the first U.S. president to win non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland, he needs to sound, act and look presidential, including recognizing that the race has changed.
He is no longer facing Joe Biden, but rather a wholly new candidate, who has galvanized the Democratic base in ways unimaginable just a few months ago.
Ultimately, in an election that is likely to be extremely close — even closer than 2020, according to Politico — an impressive performance by either candidate will likely take on outsized importance in determining who wins in November.
And with any future debates uncertain, whichever candidate does a better job hitting their objectives will likely have a significant — and perhaps decisive — advantage in the election’s final sprint.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
