Why researchers fear the Gaza death toll could reach 186,000

War doesn’t just kill people through direct violence. Malnutrition, healthcare shortages and unsanitary conditions inevitably follow

Even if Israel’s bombing campaign were to stop, the death toll in Gaza is expected to soar. A letter published in the medical journal the Lancet claims that the final figure could eventually be around 186,000. Written by scientists who model how war affects health, the letter lays out the importance of an accurate count – and the difficulty of achieving one.

For the past nine months, Israeli forces have waged an intense military campaign that has killed about 38,000 people in Gaza, according to Gaza’s health ministry. Over time these numbers (acknowledged by the United Nations, the World Health Organization and Israeli intelligence services) have become more difficult to assess, with officials less able to keep pace with the killings. An additional 10,000 people are believed to be buried under the rubble in Gaza. They have not been counted among the dead.

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