Bitcoin prices plunged below support at $60,000, falling to a nine-week low of around $57,000 during trading on July 4.
This could accelerate a potential drop to or even below $50,000, according to Markus Thielen, founder and CEO of 10x Research.
In a note to investors on July 4, Thielen said that the psychological $60,000 level is a key level for miners and Bitcoin Spot ETF buyers, broadly marking the bottom of a three-month trading range.
Potential Plunge to $50K
“Price declines could accelerate as support gets broken and sellers scramble to find liquidity,” he said before adding:
“Only ill-informed traders are willing to buy here. Breaking this support could cause a sharp decline to the low $50,000s.”
#Bitcoin Is Crashing to $50,000 – But You Are Prepared…!!! -> here -> https://t.co/oCgSsi3t0r pic.twitter.com/H1HY0kGkV7
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) July 4, 2024
The analyst observed poor Q3 seasonals, with August and September historically seeing negative returns in addition to concerns about miners liquidating inventory as prices approached their $60,000 breakeven point.
Richard Galvin, co-founder of hedge fund Digital Asset Capital Management, commented on the political angle, stating that “The likelihood of a stronger Democratic candidate replacing Biden who might not be pro-crypto is a factor,” before adding:
“A bigger reason in the short term for the Bitcoin weakness is the overhang from Mt. Gox, and government selling.”
Crypto investor Andrew Kang predicted an even bigger drop, claiming that his initial estimates of low $50Ks “were too conservative, and we see a more extreme reset to $40Ks.”
He also predicted a few months of chop and down-trending during the recovery period before a reversal of an upward trend would be possible.
In a note to investors on July 4, FxPro senior market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich observed that the BTC price touched the lower boundary of the descending channel and dropped below the 200-day moving average.
He concurred with the bearish predictions forecasting a further fall:
“From the current position, a 12% drop to $51.5k (February consolidation area) is more likely than the same amount of growth to $65.8k (50-day MA).”
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Bitcoin prices fell to a nine-week low on Thursday, July 4. The asset has lost 5.2% over the past 24 hours and 12.6% over the past fortnight.
The next level of support lies at the $51,500 level, which appears to be heading there.
As usual, the rest of the crypto market is being dragged down with it, and altcoins such as Solana (SOL), Toncoin (TON), Dogecoin (DOGE), Avalanche (AVAX), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Chainlink (LINK) are suffering heavier losses.
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