CFA Romania macroeconomic confidence index dragged down by expectations

CFA Romania macroeconomic confidence index dragged down by expectations

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator compiled by the CFA Romania Society decreased in March by 1.4 points, to 59.4 points on a 0-100 scale, with the 50-point benchmark indicating a balanced state of economy and expectations (or a balanced combination).

“Although, in the short term, due to the influx of public money, the confidence in the economy increases, for the 12-month horizon, given the macroeconomic imbalances and the high fiscal uncertainty, the expectations decreased,” explained Adrian Codirlaşu, vice-president of CFA Romania Association.

The decline was due to the divergent evolution of the two components of the indicator: the current conditions improved significantly by 5.2 points to a robust 75-point position, while the expectations for a 12-month horizon deteriorated by 4.7 points to a position of 51.6 points, still in the “positive” half.

Notably, only 29% of the analysts CFA Society members surveyed expect the central bank to cut the monetary policy rate (at 7% since January 2023) in May, while 36% expect such a step only in July. 

The March survey indicates expectations for 2.7% GDP growth (2.5% in February) and a budget deficit of 5.4% of GDP (5.5% of GDP in February) this year versus 3.4% and 5.0%-of-GDP official projections. The analysts’ expectations indicate significantly higher inflation over the next 12 months compared to the central bank’s forecast: 5.33% compared to 3.7%.

(Photo source: Yunkiphotoshot/

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *