As Donald Trump’s New York City “hush money” trial nears its end, with a verdict expected shortly after Memorial Day, the long-simmering question of how Trump’s legal situation will impact the presidential election may soon be answered.
Importantly, with it all but certain that this will be the only case to reach a verdict prior to the election, there are unique implications for whichever decision the jury reaches.
The most obvious being that if the jury decides Trump is guilty, the leading candidate for President of the United States will be a convicted felon, and voters will have to decide whether or not this disqualifies Trump for office.
That being said, if Democrats are hoping that a guilty verdict would render Trump unelectable, they are likely to be disappointed, as there are two significant reasons why a verdict likely won’t hurt Trump and may actually help the former president.
The first reason is that, as polling by my firm, Schoen Cooperman Research reveals, many Americans are unconvinced either that Trump actually did anything wrong, or that the prosecutions of Trump are legitimate, rather than driven by politics.
Indeed, one-half (50%) of registered voters agree with the statement that “The indictments against Donald Trump are a form of election interference, being carried out by liberal prosecutors, the Biden administration, and the Justice Department.”
Further, a similar 45% – a plurality – agree that indicting Trump is part of a Democratic plan to steal the 2024 election.
In that same vein, when asked whether Trump did something wrong and should be prosecuted, did something wrong and should not be prosecuted, or if Trump did nothing wrong at all, just 48% of voters feel that Trump did something wrong and should be prosecuted.
The remaining majority (52%) say Trump did something wrong but should not be prosecuted (13%), Trump did nothing wrong (26%) or are unsure (13%).
Put another way, there is considerable doubt, among pluralities or an outright majority of voters that the indictments facing Donald Trump are based on the rule of law rather than a desire simply to keep him off the ballot in November.
The finding that even a guilty verdict would have minimal impact on the election is born out in public polling as well. A majority (53%) of registered voters say a guilty plea would have no effect on their vote, and are virtually split on whether it would make them less likely (25%) or more likely (23%) to vote for the former president, per recent Emerson polling.
In swing states specifically, Cook Swing State polling reveals that Biden’s “age and ability to complete his term” was more concerning than Trump’s legal problems by a 53% to 47% margin.
And, despite Trump’s legal issues, Cook shows that Trump leads in six of seven swing states, with Wisconsin a tie, further reflecting the limited impact of any of Trump’s cases on his standing with this critical bloc of voters.
To that end, the second reason a guilty verdict may not be the magic bullet Democrats may hope is largely due to the nature of the “hush money” case.
The New York City case lacks the gravity of the election and voter interference cases, as well as the national security implications of the documents case in Florida, all potentially more damaging, but each stalled for various reasons.
Quite simply, whereas Trump’s attempts to subvert democracy in the last election, or mishandling of classified documents may understandably raise legitimate doubts over his fitness for office, the New York City case stands out for its weak underpinnings.
The hush money case revolves around actions that Trump took largely before he was elected, and the unproven legal theory it depends on makes it unclear what the actual underlying crime was that is he is alleged to have committed.
Prosecutors also made the bizarre decision to have former Trump fixer Michael Cohen play a central role. Cohen, himself a convicted felon who served time in prison due to convictions on multiple counts of fraud and lying to Congress, is hardly a credible witness.
On the witness stand, not only did Cohen admit to stealing from the Trump Organization, and give less than convincing testimony on key aspects of the trial, but he also told the jury that he has both a desire and incentive to see Trump convicted.
If a guilty verdict is unlikely to sink, or even damage Trump, should the jury acquit the former president or be unable to reach a verdict – a hung jury – Trump is likely to see a boost in his reelection chances.
Were either of those to happen, Trump would be able to claim, with some credibility, that even in deep-blue New York City, a jury was unable to find that he committed any crime.
Moreover, for Trump, who has built an image of himself as the only candidate who can take on the left and win, an acquittal or hung jury will only boost that perception, particularly among the significant number of voters who already see these trials as driven by politics.
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Finally, Democrats would be wise to look for history as a guide to how these indictments may actually benefit the candidate they are desperate to beat.
Voters have generally been able to sense when one party attempts to use the law for their benefit. Former President Bill Clinton, in 1998, and even Trump himself in 2020 both hit their respective highs in job approval during impeachment hearings that were perceived to be overtly partisan.
To be clear, this is not to say that even if Trump is found guilty that it will have no negative impact. It is entirely possible that as the election nears, voters may grow uncomfortable with a president convicted of a felony, even one considered the weakest of the nearly 100 facing Trump.
Rather, it is to suggest that, as the SCR poll – and national polls showing Trump’s lead over Biden either stable or widening – suggest, the implications of even a guilty verdict will not be kryptonite for Trump’s chances in November.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
