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The Cubs will get their second crack at Paul Skenes in Friday’s matinee, which will be appointment television for many. But all the hype around the Pirates’ pitching phenom seems to be taking away from what Jared Jones – their other spectacular young arm – is doing.
Jones will face Chicago for the second straight time on Thursday night at Wrigley Field, with both teams looking to rebound from tough series losses.
Pirates vs. Cubs odds
Moneyline: Pirates +110, Cubs -130
Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-190), Cubs -1.5 (+160)
Total: Over 7.5 (-115), Under 7.5 (-105)
Odds via bet365
Pirates vs. Cubs prediction
The Cubs got a taste of Jones’ arm talent last Saturday in a game in which they generated just two earned runs and seven hits in the rookie’s six innings of work. Saturday’s results shouldn’t be a slight toward the Cubs either; seven hits is the most Jones has allowed in his eight starts this season.
Jones owns the best Stuff+ rating in baseball at 135. He owns a Location+ rating of 106 and a Pitching+ of 115. Those numbers suggest he should be a dominant starter, and he has been with a 2.68 ERA and WHIP of just 0.872. His expected rates are excellent, too, including an xFIP of 2.70.
Jones has thrown his fastball for a strike 74% of the time this season, which is the third-highest mark in baseball. He will come right after batters knowing the liveliness of his stuff, and his high hard-hit rate will always be countered with an elite K/BB ratio.
The Cubs won’t mind their chances here with Justin Steele on the mound. Steele will make just his third start of the season here after missing April with a hamstring issue.
Justin Steele is working himself back into form after missing the start of the season (Joe Sargent/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
The Pirates hammered Steele for six earned runs in Saturday’s outing, after he made an excellent season debut on May 6 versus San Diego. Steele’s pitch arsenal rates better than last year so far (100 Stuff+, 107 Location+). In time we should see him settle in and become one of the National League’s better starters again.
The Pirates do quietly provide a tougher-than-average matchup for Steele based upon their splits versus left-handed pitching this season. Pittsburgh has hit to a wRC+ of 108 against LHP and owns a wOBA of .328.
However, Pittsburgh’s offense has been anemic over the last two weeks, with a wRC+ of only 85 and a K-rate of 25.2%.
The Cubs have hit to a wRC+ of 99 against right-handed pitching, with a wOBA of .301. Having both Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner potentially sidelined will hurt the Cubs offensive upside in this specific matchup.
Steele should find better form after he acclimates to a late start to the year, while Jones’ profile tells us he is already one of the best pitchers in the league. This matchup suggests a potential pitchers duel, and Wrigley should feature reasonable pitching conditions (forecast calls for 6-7 mph winds blowing out to centerfield).
There is value betting the under 7.5 at anything better than -115.
Best bet: Under 7.5 total runs (-105 at bet365 | Play to -115)
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