Recovery and interest rate cuts won’t be enough to win

Across the EU and US, strong anti-incumbency sentiment shows voters in west are unhappy with direction of travel

As the weeks roll by, Rishi Sunak’s decision to call the election before he needed to appears ever more curious. Unemployment is up and growth has stalled. NHS waiting lists have increased. There will be better news from this week’s annual inflation figures but it won’t make a difference to voting intentions.

The case for holding on until the autumn was that it would give time for the Bank of England to start cutting interest rates and for recovery to become more firmly embedded. That case now looks all the stronger. Threadneedle Street is not going to deliver a pre-election cut in interest rates this week and by the time it does start to reduce the cost of borrowing, the Conservatives will be long gone.