There’s only one game on the evening slate tonight, so all eyes will be on the Houston Astros again.
The Cleveland Guardians are one of the hottest teams in baseball, and the Astros have won three of their last four, and they may be able to start digging out of their hole.
Pick a winner. Nah.
Play some plus-money props? Yes, indeed!
Consider the value for these props offering plus-money payouts—all odds, according to DraftKings.
Let’s start with a strikeout prop for tonight:
The Guardians have a mere 19.7% strikeout rate this season—the fifth-lowest in MLB. Just last night, Justin Verlander tossed seven innings of two-run ball but only punched out two. Righty starters are averaging just four strikeouts per game vs. Cleveland this season.
Arrighetti has excellent stuff and generally has a high-strikeout upside with a K-rate of 12.66 per nine this year, but it’s hard to see Arrighetti going too long in this game based on his previous outings. Arrighetti has not yet made it to the fifth inning this season. So, all of that suggests the under. But here’s why we are grabbing the over:
Arrighetti has a K-rate of more than 15 per nine vs. left-handed hitters. Cleveland’s primary everyday lineup consists of only one right-handed hitter and two switch-hitters. The rest are lefties. That’s a very lefty-dominant lineup, and enough for me to take the risk for the payout.
Now, onto hitting props:
I love these props that are in plus money. Tucker has been Houston’s hottest hitter this year, with a team-leading eight home runs and 21 RBI, and he’s especially dominant when facing lefties.
Tucker is tied for second in MLB in extra-base hits vs. southpaws (eight), and he has the third-most RBI (11). He’s hitting .341 vs. lefties this year with a 1.147 OPS.
That should play well vs. Guardians pitcher Logan Allen, who has an ERA of 5.46 this season and has allowed an average exit velocity in the bottom 14% of the league.
Ramírez hasn’t had a hit yet in this Houston series, so you know what that means: He’s due. Seriously, though.
Ramírez will likely bat righty tonight vs. Arighetti, and he has 17 RBI vs. right-handed pitchers this season (tied for seventh in MLB). At +125, I like the value.
One last thing: I’m willing to grab the over on this game tonight, which is currently set at nine. Not only do the Astros punish lefties, but Arrighetti has an ERA of 10.97 this season. Sure, it should be better, but an xERA of 4.36, according to Statcast, still bodes well for the over when you consider how well the Guardians hit with RISP and how volatile Houston’s bullpen is this year. Both teams should get in their knocks tonight.
Arrighetti over 4.5K (+105)
Kyle Tucker over 1.5 total bases (+105)
Kyle Tucker over .5 RBI (+120)
Jose Ramirez over .5 RBI (+125)
Game total: Over 9 (-115)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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