Southern California’s hiring pace 16% below normal

Southern California’s hiring pace 16% below normal

Here’s more evidence of Southern California’s cooling economy: February’s hiring pace was 16% below the region’s pre-pandemic hiring pace.

My trusty spreadsheet, filled with state job figures released March 22, found 7.93 million at work in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties in February. This data is not adjusted for seasonal swings.

So, employment is up 40,600 in a month. It’s a nice reversal from January’s 151,400 loss of employees as job counts typically drop to start a year. Yet February’s increase was below the 48,200 average hires for a February in 2015-19.

Over 12 months, Southern California bosses added 55,400 positions. However, that year’s job growth of 0.7% is below the previous 12 month’s 1% increase and the 2.2%-a-year average hiring pace in 2015-19.

Still, the hiring translated to decreased regional joblessness.

The four-county unemployment rate was 4.9% in February, compared with 5.3% in the previous month, but it’s above the 4.5% from a year earlier. Joblessness averaged 4.7% in pre-pandemic 2015-19.

The 440,600 counted as officially out of work was down 41,600 in a month – but up 32,600 in a year. The jobless count is 4% above the 424,700 average of pre-pandemic 2015-19.

California’s unemployment rate for February 5.3%, seasonally adjusted, was the highest since December 2021 and tops among the states.

Regional differences

Here’s how Southern California’s job market performed in the region’s key metropolitan areas …

Los Angeles County: 4.55 million workers, after adding 27,700 in a month and growing by 9,400 in a year. Hiring averaged 34,800 for the month in 2015-19. Unemployment? 5% vs. 5.9% a month earlier; 4.8% a year ago; and 5.2% average in 2015-19.

Orange County: 1.69 million workers, after adding 10,400 in a month and growing by 24,100 in a year. Hiring averaged 11,100 for the month in 2015-19. Unemployment? 4.2% – same as a month earlier vs. 3.3% a year ago; and 3.6% average in 2015-19.

Inland Empire: 1.69 million workers, after adding 2,500 in a month and growing by 21,900 in a year. Hiring averaged 2,300 for the month in 2015-19. Unemployment? 5.5% – same as a month earlier vs. 4.4% a year ago; and 5.2% average in 2015-19.

Industry swings

Job changes in key Southern California business sectors, ranked by one-month change …

Education/health: 1.52 million workers – up 20,600 in a month and up 82,300 in a year.

Leisure/hospitality: 940,700 workers – up 10,000 in a month and up 9,500 in a year.

Information: 219,200 workers – up 6,600 in a month but down 37,500 in a year.

Professional-business services: 1.13 million workers – up 5,700 in a month but down 18,700 in a year.

Government: 1.03 million workers – up 5,400 in a month and up 27,800 in a year.

Construction: 368,800 workers – up 900 in a month and up 4,700 in a year.

Financial: 357,700 workers – up 400 in a month but down 3,800 in a year.

Manufacturing: 568,100 workers – down 300 in a month and down 9,100 in a year.

Transport-Warehouse-Utility: 682,500 workers – down 6,300 in a month and down 1,500 in a year.

Retailing: 726,900 workers – down 6,900 in a month and down 3,200 in a year.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com

2024 economic forecasts

Chapman: ‘Very slow growth. No recession’
CS Fullerton: ‘Cracks’ will widen to a mild recession in late 2024
US Realtors: Housing rebound from 2023’s dismal sales
California Realtors: Rising prices, sales in 2024
USC: SoCal rents to rise 2-4% a year through 2025

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