When it comes to AI, the glass isn’t just half-full or half-empty. Depending on who you ask, AI is either brimming over with unimaginable benefits, or poses a literally existential threat to all of us.
In the “pro” column, Goldman Sachs forecasts that GenAI will deliver a $7 trillion boost for the global economy, increasing productivity by 1.5%. And according to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, today’s schoolkids could grow up to enjoy a three and a half day workweek — plus far longer and healthier lives — thanks to AI.
On the other hand, here in California we’ve seen writers striking to keep their work from being done by AI models, and concerns over actors being replaced by computer-generated simulations. It’s not just Hollywood that’s at risk: researchers say 90% of US workers will see their jobs disrupted as AI tools take over tasks previously done by people.
The reality is that both sides have a point: AI will cause a vast amount of disruption, but that disruption also represents an incredible opportunity. Societal and technological transformation — from the Industrial Revolution to the Information Revolution — brings both pain and gain, and that will be true of the AI Revolution too. But perhaps uniquely, AI also has the potential — as folks at Davos recently noted — to become a “Great Equalizer” increasing knowledge, prosperity, opportunity, and quality of life for everyone.
What makes AI so special? It’s partly that while previous revolutions automated physical processes, or made it easier to move information around, the AI Revolution democratizes skills and expertise. Just as ChatGPT makes writing and research effortless, so future AI models will make it possible to get world-class legal, medical, financial, or virtually any other kind of advice in an instant. People who could never have afforded a dietician or a tax expert, for instance, will be able to get the best possible health and wellness advice for free — or get the biggest possible tax refund at the click of a button.
Ensuring equitable access to AI remains a concern, but with the majority of the world’s population using smartphones, and mobile AI increasingly the rule rather than the exception, we’re moving toward a future where virtually everyone on the planet will have access to AI tools. What Andy Warhol said about soda — “A Coke is a Coke, and no amount of money can get you a better Coke” — will become true about expertise, too, with everyone on the planet able to get the best possible skilled advice and support for any imaginable situation.
That democratization of expertise will help offset the economic disruption caused by AI: if you’re getting great advice on how to find work, gain new skills, or manage your finances, you might come out ahead even if your job is impacted by new technologies. That said, we’ll still need clear guardrails to help those affected by AI — not just to ensure that AI tools operate safely, but also to manage the impact they have on individual workers. (That three-and-a-half day workweek might not be so attractive, for instance, if you’re only getting paid for three and a half days of work!)
It’s worth thinking, here, about how people responded to the Industrial Revolution. Today, we use the term “Luddite” to mean someone with an aversion to technology, but the original loom-smashing Luddites weren’t anti-technology — they just wanted to see the benefits of increased productivity filter down to workers as well as to the mill-owners. It’s tempting to say that we need a new Luddite movement — not to smash AI, but to ensure its benefits are felt by everyone. Just as the Luddites fought for minimum wage protection, for instance, perhaps today’s AI activists will fight for universal basic income, or other ways to ensure that AI productivity gains don’t only benefit the people who own the algorithms.
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Of course, the original Luddites were working Joes with limited ability to challenge the power of the British establishment. The people most directly affected by the AI Revolution, by contrast, are highly skilled workers whose knowledge and expertise is being made more freely available — not blue-collar workers, but influential members of the economic and cultural elite. Because of that, they are far better positioned to demand protections, and to ensure that AI benefits everyone. We’ve already seen Hollywood actors and writers win important concessions to protect their livelihoods, and politicians — including President Joe Biden, Gov. Gavin Newsom, and the folks in Sacramento — are busy building regulatory apparatus to ensure that AI evolves in a safe and sustainable way.
That should give us all some reassurance. Yes, we’re entering a period of disruption, and yes, the AI Revolution will impact everyone. But the glass really is full to overflowing. With the right guardrails, and continued pressure for regulatory oversight, we have a real opportunity to turn AI into a “great equalizer,” and a driver of radical prosperity on a truly unprecedented scale.
Yoav Kutner is a Los Angeles-based technology entrepreneur.
