Mounting evidence reveals that Californians are rapidly losing confidence in the state’s political leadership. That loss in confidence is driven by the perception, much of it based in reality, that our elected officials simply aren’t addressing the real problems facing Californians.
Those in power will contend that voters are satisfied with the current political structure because little has changed over the last two decades. But citizens are fully aware that an entrenched political class is virtually impossible to dislodge. Factors that combine to keep the elected officials in power include inherent incumbent advantages, a compliant media, overwhelming financial support from public sector labor, and changes in election laws designed to protect incumbents (some of which were passed in the middle of an election cycle).
A better measure of voter discontent is reflected in the outcome of local and state ballot measures. In 2020, progressive interests thought that the timing was right to advance the anti-Prop. 13 split-roll initiative raising property taxes on commercial property. But even with several factors in their favor in that election cycle, the effort failed, as did another 2020 ballot measure seeking approval of a $16 billion school construction bond.
More recently, Proposition 1, the ballot measure to address homelessness heavily financed by the fundraising machine of Gov. Gavin Newsom, barely eked out a win against opposition that spent almost nothing. The thin margin of victory ― 50.2% to 49.8% ― suggests that voters are now reflexively distrustful of what they are being told by politicians.
Looking forward, a major test of voter discontent in California is presented by the Taxpayer Protection and Government Accountability Act (TPA), a proposed constitutional amendment which has already qualified for the November 2024 ballot. It is sponsored by taxpayer and business organizations to restore key provisions of Proposition 13 and other pro-taxpayer laws that give voters more control over when and how new tax revenue is raised.
Although TPA doesn’t reduce or eliminate any state or local tax, it does impose both enhanced voter approval requirements for fee and tax increases as well as robust accountability and transparency provisions. But because TPA empowers taxpayers, the spending interests have launched a multi-front assault to stop it by any means possible. This included a highly questionable lawsuit by the Legislature and Gov. Gavin Newsom to kick it off the ballot entirely. This lawsuit is now before the California Supreme Court.
The reason political elites are so nervous about TPA is that polling reveals strong support among the electorate. And recent headlines from California provide little comfort to those who argue that the Golden State retains its sheen under the current one-party government.
This week, the California State Auditor issued a report highly critical of the effectiveness of the state’s expenditure of $24 billion over the last five years on the homelessness crisis. According to the state auditor, California fails to track whether all that spending on the crisis is doing any good at all.
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If last week’s story of billions lost to waste, fraud or mismanagement sounds familiar, it should. Like a broken record, this is the very essence of California. Volumes have been written about California’s High-Speed Rail project wasting billions with virtually no chance of completion. The same is true with the debacle of the $30 billion lost to fraud by the Employment Development Department and, more recently, hundreds of millions in enrollment fraud in the California Community College system.
Finally, while it is true that other states have their own problems, the California “confidence conundrum” is unique in its depth. In an article in National Review, Jim Geraghty writes that, in most states, the disparity between the perception of whether their states are on the right track or wrong track versus their perception of the federal government, the numbers are evenly split. But the “one glaring exception is California, where just 33 percent think the state is headed in the right direction, while 57 percent think the state is off on the wrong track.”
With so many Californians believing that the state is headed in the wrong direction, the environment is ripe for fundamental reforms, especially when it comes to taxes. The timing to put TPA before the voters couldn’t be better.
Jon Coupal is president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.
