Fierceness is a Kentucky Derby favorite after Florida Derby win

John Cherwa March 31, 2024

The Kentucky Derby is less than five weeks away, but its clear who will be the favorite in the 150th running of the race. Fierceness dominating 13-length win in Saturdays $1-million Florida Derby puts him on top of a field that some say is lacking in star power.

The Florida Derby is considered the best predictor of Kentucky Derby success, with 25 horses

having wonwinning

both races. And that doesnt take into account horses that didnt win the Florida Derby but did win in Louisville, such as Mage last year, who finished second at Gulfstream Park.

Part of the lack of top names is because of the ban

on of

the trainer considered the best conditioner of 2- and 3-year-olds, Bob Baffert. The Southern California-based trainer won the

2001 2021

Kentucky Derby, his then-seventh win, with Medina Spirit but the result was overturned when the colt tested positive for a legal medication

that isn’t allowed, but not legal

on race day. Baffert has dropped all litigation but still maintains the horses medication for a rash was within the rules.

Churchill Downs banned Baffert from its tracks for two years and then

unexplainably

added at least one more year because it didnt think the trainer showed enough contrition. The Derby qualifying points of any Baffert

-trained horserunner

are vacated if they are in the top five.

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This is important because the second-best horse

,currently,

is

currently

considered to be the Baffert-trained Muth, who won Saturdays $1.5-million Arkansas Derby by two lengths.

With racing canceled at Santa Anita this

past

weekend, Baffert went to the Alabama-Clemson mens basketball game in L.A., where he told AL.com that Muths next race will be, hopefully, [the] Preakness.

But all the talk on Saturday was about Fierceness performance in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby.

That was a pretty awesome performance, said trainer Todd Pletcher of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner. Thats what we see in the mornings when we breeze him, hes a special talent. That’s why it was so perplexing his two races that he didn’t run brilliantly. He’s three times brilliant and two times has had off days.

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I think he did really well over the eight weeks [since he last raced]. I think he put on some weight. He strengthened a little bit. He had a really good series of works. We got a better trip [Saturday] and [jockey] John [Velazquez] was able to get into a comfortable rhythm and showed what he’s capable of.

It was a record-setting margin of victory in the Florida Derby,

and

a record number of wins by a trainer (eight) and jockey (six).

The final pieces to the Kentucky Derby

puzzle

will be determined on Saturday with the last three major-point qualifiers:

. There is

the Santa Anita Derby, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The winner gets 100 points and second place gets 50 points, both enough to make the field of 20.

While the Santa Anita Derby wont be drawn until Wednesday, Baffert has nominated four horses

,

including Maymun and Imagination, who are likely to be the first and second morning-line favorites.

Maymum Maymun

is undefeated in two starts and Imagination won the San Felipe Stakes. Baffert also has Wine Me Up, second in the San Felipe, and Wynstock, winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity.

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Of particular interest is Stronghold, winner of the Sunland Derby,

and who is

trained by Phil DAmato. Stronghold is on the bubble for a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby and likely needs at least a third-place finish to have a chance of making the field. Presuming that the Bafferts finish first and second, if Stronghold is back in the field, it will be the first time in more than 70 years that there was no California-based or California-bred horse in the Kentucky Derby. It may be longer but records are incomplete.

The best race of the day is expected to be the Blue Grass Stakes, which has Sierra Leone, winner of the Risen Star at Fair Grounds

,

and Dornoch, winner of the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream.

The Wood Memorial winner hasnt won the Derby since 2000, when Fusaichi Pegasus won both

in 2000

. Deterministic, winner of both his races including the Gotham Stakes, is the expected favorite.

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Barring an injury or change in plans there will be two Japanese horses in the Kentucky Derby. Forever Young qualified on Saturday when he won the UAE Derby at the Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. It was his fifth win in five starts, which included a victory in the Saudi Derby.

The other Japanese horse is likely to be T O Password, undefeated in two starts, who

wontook the Japan ese Road to the Kentucky Derby series by winning

the Fukuryu Stakes on March 23. No horse from Japan or winner of the UAE Derby has ever won the Kentucky Derby.

There is also a spot in the 20-horse field for the winner of the Europe

an

Road to the Kentucky Derby, which should be determined

next

Saturday in the Cardinal Condition Stakes at Chelmsford City in Britain.