How the Lakers can finish 8th, 9th or 10th with two games to play

Editor’s note: This is the Friday, April 12, edition of the Purple & Bold Lakers newsletter from reporter Khobi Price. To receive the newsletter in your inbox, sign up here.

WEEK IN REVIEW

Sunday: L; Timberwolves 127, Lakers 117
Tuesday: L; Warriors 134, Lakers 120

THE WORD

MEMPHIS, Tenn. — After dropping back-to-back home games ahead of the regular season’s final weekend, the Lakers will need external help to avoid finishing at No. 10 in the Western Conference.

How much help? That’s where it gets complicated amidst a tight race for play-in tournament seeding.

The 10-seed Lakers (45-35) entered Friday’s road matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies with the same record as the nine-seed Golden State Warriors and eight-seed Sacramento Kings.

The Kings clinched the tiebreaker over the Lakers and Warriors, sweeping the Lakers 4-0 in regular-season matchups and having a better division record than the Warriors after their season series ended 2-2. The Warriors hold the tiebreaker over the Lakers after winning the series 3-1.

So the Lakers would need to finish with better regular-season records than the Kings or Warriors to jump either in the standings.

The chances of that happening are slim.

The Lakers have a 75% chance of finishing the regular season at No. 10, a 19% chance of finishing No. 9 and a 6% chance to finish No. 8, according to playoffstatus.com.

For the Lakers to make it up to the Nos. 7-8 play-in game, which would give them at least two chances to clinch a spot in the playoffs, they’d need two of these scenarios to happen in addition to beating the Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday, as detailed by Spectrum SportsNet’s Mike Trudell:

No. 7 Phoenix Suns lose both their road games, to the Kings on Friday and the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday;
No. 8 Kings lose to either the Suns on Friday or the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday;
No. 9 Warriors lose to either the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday or the Utah Jazz on Sunday.

The Lakers have the tiebreaker over the Suns. They can’t leap the six-seed Pelicans, who are guaranteed to finish as the sixth or seventh seed.

If the Lakers finish the regular season 1-1, then they wouldn’t be able to leap over the Suns and would need the Kings and Warriors to lose their final two games to jump either in the standings.

As pointed out by Matt Moore, NBA Writer for Action Network:

Nos 7 seeds are 6-0 in making it from the play-in to the playoffs
Nos 8 seeds are 3-3
Nos 9 seeds are 3-3
Nos 10 seeds are 0-6