The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator compiled by the CFA Society Romania based on a survey among its members increased in December close to the year’s highest level – driven by both current conditions and anticipations sub-indices.
The Society’s vice-president, Adrian Codirlasu, attempted to explain the analysts’ sentiment that improved despite the broadly criticised fiscal package and expectations for further tax hikes.
“This year [2024], the economy will grow more than last year, possibly twice as fast – and this is what had a positive impact on [analysts’] expectations,” explained Codirlasu, quoted by Ziarul Financiar.
However, the CFA analysts said they expect 2.6% GDP growth in 2024, not much more compared to 2.0% estimated for 2023. Perhaps the monetary policy improved the sentiment of the Society’s analysts – most of them working in banks, therefore embracing the central bank’s caution with the planned rate cuts.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator increased in December by 9 points compared to November, to the value of 56.6 points – on a scale of 0 to 100, where 50 means a balanced sentiment. Both sub-indicators increased by similar amounts to 64.3 points (current conditions) and 52.7 points (expectations).
Despite the optimistic (above 50 points) sub-indicator, the analysts expect the government to miss the 4.9%-of-GDP budget deficit target by 0.7% of GDP (to end the year at a 5.6%-of-GDP gap). The inflation would also miss the central bank’s 4.8% yearend target to reach nearly 5.8%.
iulian@romania-insider.com
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