Two historians argued in the 1990s that nine conditions defined the likelihood of Tory defeat. Almost all of them hold today
Incredible though it may seem, it is increasingly likely that Rishi Sunak’s Conservative leadership will be challenged in June. To many, the idea that choosing a fifth Tory prime minister in as many years might be the solution to internal party turmoil, or that ditching Sunak a few months before a general election would reanimate the electorate, will feel utterly delusional. To a significant group of Conservative MPs and activists, however, it is a primrose path that beckons irresistibly.
These critics never supported Sunak in the first place. They can’t forgive him for not having Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit appeal. They despise his caution about their obsessions. They treat his failure to dent Labour’s poll lead with contempt. They believe, probably rightly, that in the 2 May local elections Sunak may lead the Tories to a humiliating defeat. But they hope this will panic the party into yet another change of leader and a lurch to their land of lost content on the populist right.
