There is no evidence for the government’s claim that deportations will ‘stop the boats’
The capitulation of the House of Lords over the government’s Rwanda bill was predictable – even if some opponents had hoped against hope that peers might force a climbdown. As of now, UK law states that Rwanda is a “safe country”, making it possible for ministers to send asylum seekers there. The shameful course of action embarked on late last year, after the supreme court ruled the deportation policy unlawful, has thus concluded. Two years after Boris Johnson first announced the plan, Rishi Sunak is set to try again.
From parliament the focus now swings back to the courts, where lawyers will try to have individuals removed from flight lists. The law allows for this if they face “real, imminent and foreseeable risk of serious irreversible harm” from being sent to Rwanda – which some undoubtedly will. Mr Sunak’s calculation is that the policy makes political sense despite this and the £1.8m estimated initial cost per deportee. Its appeal is two-pronged, and combines the fuelling of xenophobic sentiment among voters – by ensuring that irregular migration stays in the news – with papering over cracks in the Tory party between hard-right populists and what remains of the liberal centre-right.
