Why Californians are fleeing this once-Golden State

California Politics

George Skelton April 8, 2024

It seems only yesterday that Californias population was nearly 40 million. Then more people left the state. Now were not even at 39 million.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported in March that Californias population as of last July had dropped to an estimated 38,965,000. Thats down by 75,400 in a year

and

573,000 below Californias peak of 39.5 million in 2020.

Entering this century, when Californias still-growing population was 34 million, we were predicted to reach 45 million by 2020 and almost 60 million by 2040. So much for that.

People have been fleeing this once-Golden State. And the exodus accelerated on Gov. Gavin Newsoms watch.

That probably wont be accentuated in Newsoms State of the State speech

if

he ever gives one this year. Its already three months past the time governors traditionally have delivered their much

–

anticipated, annual address.

Newsom hates giving prepared speeches. But he loves pitching California. And a bolting citizenry doesnt fit his usual narrative that alls terrific.

Anyway, the fact that Newsom has been governor while constituents flee the state is mostly coincidental. Sure, state public policy decisions have helped motivate some people to leave. But they probably would have departed no matter who

was the

governor

was.

California just got too big for its carrying capacity

at least in the sprawling, ranch-house lifestyle that so many people covet and symbolizes the states easy

–

living persona.

Grow and grow and grow and eventually theres not enough room, says Hans Johnson, a demographer at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.

The easy places for growth have been used up. Growth today means infill development [in cities]. Thats expensive and controversial. Or you live further away from your job.

Or leave the state and find cheaper housing almost anywhere.

Out-of-state migration is the main cause of Californias continuing population loss. But there are other reasons

,

too.

Post-World War II

Baby Boomers baby boomers those

born between 1946 and 1964

are

starting to die. And their kids and grandkids havent been producing enough babies to replace them.

Californias fertility rate has fallen faster than most [states], the

PPIC public policy institute

reported in October. In 2008 its rate was above the national average (2.15). By 2020, it fell to the seventh lowest (1.52).

The

COVID-19

pandemic took a death toll, particularly on older people. Overall, deaths in California increased by 19% in 2020 over the previous year, the

PPIC institute

reported.

The pandemic also virtually shut down foreign immigration into California. It had been the main driver of population growth for several years. When COVID struck, visa restrictions were invoked to reduce

virus the virus’

spread.

Legal and undocumented immigration have increased since the pandemic, but not to prior levels

nowhere

near, Johnson says.

California is no longer the preferred destination it used to be.

For one thing, Johnson says, Mexicos birth rate has significantly declined and its labor market is less competitive. Fewer Mexicans are heading north searching for work, although many Central Americans are seeking asylum, mostly in other states.                                                                                     

And another thing

something

demographers usually dont delve into: Trump administration policies clamped down especially on illegal immigration. The Biden administration eased up.

But the biggest reason were losing population is that people are moving out, Johnson says. That has slowed, but were still losing hundreds of thousands to other states. Thats a net loss after factoring in people moving to California.

And why are they leaving? Mainly because of Californias high cost of living, particularly housing. Thats the biggest reason movers cite.

The median cost of a California house was nearly $800,000 in November, more than double the $336,000 youd pay in Texas, according to Redfin housing market data. In neighboring Arizona and Nevada

,

it was $435,000 and $479,000, respectively. These are destination states for departing Californians.

Blame Californias high costs of land and labor plus regulatory quagmires and neighborhood resistance to growth. Newsom and legislators have been wrestling with these issues for years and enacted new laws, but they havent generated much progress in making home buying more affordable.

During the pandemic, Johnson says, highly educated people with the opportunity to work remotely began leaving California because they could find affordable housing and do their jobs at home rather than commute long distances.

Also, higher

–

income people began leaving for states like such as Texas and Nevada that dont impose income taxes. California has the nations highest state income tax rate, 13.3%. We also have high sales and gas taxes. Were a high tax state, a fact Newsom poo

h

-poo

h

s.

Theres evidence that some conservatives are leaving California because they cant tolerate our liberal politics.

Many probably didnt like Newsoms shuttering of shops and schools during the pandemic. Other states were less restrictive.

The Idaho secretary of state reported in November that of nearly 30,000 ex-Californians who had moved to the Gem State, 75% registered to vote as Republicans. Only 10% signed up as Democrats.

Thats bad news for the declining California GOP.

What else does Californias continued population loss mean?

More room on the freeways and less congestion generally.

Less stress on our unstable water supply.

But also less tax revenue. With the top 20% of earners

those

families making at least $120,000 a year

supplying

91% of the state income tax, a continued exodus is sure to lighten the Sacramento pocketbook. The state currently is facing a budget deficit of tens of billions of dollars. Theres an argument over the exact amount.

California loses national political clout as people leave. Well probably surrender two more U.S. House seats after the 2030 census. We lost one in 2020 when we were still growing.

One way to make California more enticing would be to offer a benefit that worked well for generations until the state got greedy in the 1970s: Free tuition at public universities for California residents. That would at least help prevent a brain drain.