California has led the nation in proving that decarbonization is not only compatible with economic growth, it’s a natural complement. As a result of twenty years of effective policy making, we have among the lowest per-capita emissions in the U.S. and standards set by California have driven consumer adoption of clean technology across the nation.
That’s no small feat for the nation’s most populous state that is home to major industries. But as researchers who have tracked 15 years of climate policy, we know that we won’t outpace the climate crisis unless we do even more. Following the pandemic, emissions rose by 3.4% from 2020 to 2021. Our calculations say that to meet our 2030 target, we will need to reduce emissions annually by 4.6%. We can achieve this goal but we need to move faster to cut our reliance on fossil fuels in homes and cars. We have to be bolder in adding renewable energy to our grid. And we have to break our reliance on polluting natural gas that is holding us back from the goals we set for ourselves.
We have set monumental goals. But we know that California can meet them – because in many ways, we already are.
Every year, the California Green Innovation Index sets out to map California’s progress on climate and economy-related metrics. Using the latest data available from the California Air Resources Board (CARB), we found promising emissions drops in key sectors like transportation and buildings but challenges in the power sector.
Emissions from passenger, heavy-duty trucks and other vehicles declined by 10% between 2019 to 2021. And given that transportation supplies 40% of the state’s carbon emissions, that number signifies one of California’s greatest climate action achievements to date. EV sales in California were the highest in the nation in 2023, and we’re likely to hit our benchmark of putting 5 million battery-powered vehicles on the road by 2030 one year early.
From the editorial board: California should ditch unrealistic climate goals
Buildings are cleaner, too. Residential buildings alone shed 4.4% of their emissions between 2019 and 2021, as consumers warm to heat pumps and cleaner, safer technologies like induction stoves. This is a promising sign that should embolden policymakers to drive more action to help decarbonize our homes and buildings.
The worst jump in emissions that we found came from the power sector — where pollution from in-state power generation rose more than 10% over two years. California relied too much on polluting gas plants in the absence of hydropower resources. To get power sector emissions 58% lower in 2035 than they were in 2020, Beacon Economics estimates California will need to decrease emissions every year by 6.8% between 2021 and 2035 to meet that target. It’s a challenge, but California can do it. We have vast clean energy resources waiting to be built and connected to the grid.
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We face challenges hitting our climate targets. But they are by no means insurmountable, especially for the most innovative state in the nation. Time and again California has shown we are capable of overcoming challenges for the good of all. We can do it through policy and regulatory action. We can do it by removing obstacles to clean power generation, by providing more funding to help Californians move to cleaner cars, active transportation and healthier homes, and by decarbonizing our manufacturing facilities and lowering our reliance on polluting gas.
California is behind in its emissions reduction goals, but that doesn’t mean those goals should be abandoned. What the data shows is that our policies are working, we just need to stay the course and double down on action.
California put 1.5 million EVs on the road two years ahead of schedule. We kickstarted the movement to energy-efficient buildings powered by clean energy. We set and then destroyed our clean energy goals years early. We have a lot to be proud of. To hit these 2030 targets we must speed up the energy transition and make good on our promise to lead the globe into a safer, healthier era powered by clean energy. Our children will thank us.
F. Noel Perry is the founder of Next 10. Stafford Nichols is a research manager at Beacon Economics.
