Firms combine polling and census-type data to predict outcomes in each constituency but with sometimes differing results
If an MP’s life wasn’t nerve-racking enough, they must now face polls predicting not just how many seats their party will win, but their own electoral fate. The bad news for anxious politicians is that MRP polling is here to stay – and getting more accurate all the time.
MRP, the handy acronym for a technique called multilevel regression and poststratification, was in the news this week after a pair of polls predicted the Conservatives plummeting to 98 and 155 seats respectively at the next election.
Guardian Newsroom: What is Labour’s plan?
On Tuesday 16 April, 8pm–9.15pm BST, join Gaby Hinsliff, Tom Baldwin, Polly Toynbee and Kiran Stacey as they discuss the ideas and the events that might shape Labour in power. Book tickets here or at theguardian.live
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