Bitcoin (BTC) could rally 160%, hitting $150,000 14 months after the halving takes place, according to analysts’ predictions in the latest edition of the Bitfinex Alpha report.
Bitfinex used a simplistic and straightforward regression model that projects diminishing returns by analyzing the effects of previous halvings on the price of BTC. However, this model did not consider BTC reaching a new all-time high pre-halving; hence, the cryptocurrency’s post-halving price increase may exceed 160%.
The Upcoming Halving Event
The halving occurs every four years or after 210,000 blocks and is currently slated for April 20. The mechanism slashes Bitcoin block rewards by 50% and will reduce the current figure from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. It decreases the rate at which new coins are produced to ensure a diminishing supply over time.
Historically, bitcoin’s value has increased post-halving due to sustained or increased demand, but the level of growth in this cycle may be different due to the asset recording a new all-time before the event took place for the first time.
Although this factor could be seen as a bullish indicator, analysts said it has also introduced a level of uncertainty into the market dynamics, highlighting the need for a more nuanced understanding of market conditions and their potential impact on Bitcoin’s future price movements.
Bitcoin Could Rally 160%
Bitcoin rose 9,300% from $12 to $1,161, 396 days, or roughly 13 months after the 2012 halving. The asset experienced another dramatic growth in 2017, surging 2,800% from $600 to $20,000 approximately 17 months after the 2016 halving. Three years ago, the effects of the 2020 halving pushed BTC up 700% from $9,000 to $69,000, roughly 11 months after the event.
Based on the analysis, BTC is expected to rise 160% within 420 days, or 14 months after the next halving. This offers a guideline for the expectations of Bitcoin’s post-halving market behavior.
“This estimation aligns with the observed trend of diminishing percentage increases following each halving event. With a conservative estimate placing the price of BTC at between $57,000 and $65,000 at the time of the halving, a 160 percent price increase would lead to BTC price ranging from approximately $150,000 to $169,000 at the peak of the cycle,” Bitfinex stated.
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