Despite some polls showing that the presence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will hurt former President Donald Trump more than incumbent Joe Biden, it is likely to go the other way, as presidential elections tend to be referenda on incumbents, not to mention that Biden is facing an uphill challenge from a candidate whose name is synonymous with the Democratic Party and its history.
Regardless of the fact that RFK Jr.’s positions on a variety of issues – particularly anti-vaccinations, and anti-government along with his pro-Israel positions in regards to the ongoing war in Gaza – are closer to the GOP’s stance, RFK Jr. likely knows that if he secures debate access, attacks on Biden, who is the weaker candidate, will make more of an impact than attacks on Trump, especially in light of Trump’s vice-like grip on the GOP.
Of course, it is also important to note that while our electoral system means it is next to impossible for RFK Jr. to actually win the presidency as a third party candidate, he can surely impact the outcome and, if enough things go right, determine the winner by virtue of simply being in the race.
Similarly, while the most recent Wall Street Journal swing state poll shows that that three-in-10 supporters of Robert F. Kennedy come from Trump supporters compared to 22% coming from Biden’s, it would be a mistake to overlook one basic fact: While Donald Trump has a stranglehold over his party, Joe Biden is considerably weaker nationally, among Independents, and within his own party, which, per the Journal poll, is turning on the president.
Indeed, Biden’s dismal approval numbers, both overall (41%) and on the economy (40%), mean that any election which turns into a referendum on Biden’s policies is almost certain to push a not-insignificant bloc of Democrats or Democratic-leaning Independents away from Biden into the arms of RFK Jr.
To that point, compared to national voters, swing state voters are nearly twice as likely to cite the economy and inflation as the most important issues to their vote, with roughly 35% of swing state voters saying this, compared to 19% in a similar national poll also conducted by the Wall Street Journal.
Not only are these voters more focused on the economy, but they are also highly pessimistic about it. At least 57% of voters in each state say the U.S. economy is “not good” or “poor,” and in Georgia (67%), Michigan (66%), and North Carolina (66%), two-thirds of voters feel this way.
Across all seven states in the WSJ poll, Biden’s support among Black voters (68%) and Hispanic voters (48%) shows considerable erosion from 2020, when Biden won more than 9-in-10 Black voters (91%) and 63% of Hispanic voters.
Importantly, these findings are not isolated to the Journal poll. New York Times/Siena polling has sounded the alarm over Biden’s declining support among minority voters for months, with the most recent NYT/Siena poll (February) showing just two-thirds (66%) of Black voters and 40% of Hispanic voters backing Biden.
Younger voters, another key Democratic constituency are also turning on Biden. In the Journal’s national survey and the swing state survey, Biden is winning this group by 10-points (50% to 40%), despite carrying the ‘youth vote’ by 25-points in 2020.
In that same vein, Tuesday’s Democratic primaries further reinforced Biden’s struggles with these groups, particularly younger progressives who staunchly oppose the president’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war. In Rhode Island and Connecticut, the “uncommitted” protest vote hit double-digits, finishing in 2nd place, reaching as high as 15% in Rhode Island and 11% in Connecticut.
In all seven swing states surveyed by the Journal, there were clear signs of disapproval over the approach Biden has had to key issues such as the economy, inflation, and the border, and while Trump’s populist views certainly rile up his base, they may be extreme enough where moderates who do not like either Biden’s open border policies or Trump’s far-right approach decide that RFK Jr. is the least bad of all bad options.
Further, as Trump and Biden are both well-known – and widely disliked – candidates, enough voters may decide that a “protest” vote for RFK Jr. is the best choice, and if that happens, it will likely impact Biden more than it impacts Trump due to recency bias.
Put another way, having been out of office for four turbulent years, many voters, when they step into the ballot box will have likely forgotten Trump’s antics and focus on the record high inflation, chaotic foreign policy, porous border, and skyrocketing crime, all of which occurred under Biden, despite there being legitimate questions as to whether or not he is ultimately responsible.
Compared to national voters, swing state voters are nearly twice as likely to cite the economy and inflation as the most important issues to their vote, with roughly 35% of swing state voters saying this, compared to 19% in a similar national poll also conducted by the Wall Street Journal.
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Not only are these voters more focused on the economy, but they are also highly pessimistic about it. At least 57% of voters in each state say the U.S. economy is “not good” or “poor,” and in Georgia (67%), Michigan (66%), and North Carolina (66%), two-thirds of voters feel this way.
Taken together, these findings, along with Trump’s stranglehold on the GOP suggest that an opportunistic candidate like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will ultimately siphon more Democratic or Democratic leaning votes than Republican likely voters.
Ultimately, while much can, and will, change between now and November, especially the unresolved questions over RFK Jr.’s ballot and debate access, at this moment, it would appear that despite the conventional wisdom, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. poses a bigger threat to Biden in this race than he does to Trump, and should RFK Jr. succeed on the ballot and debate access, look for Democrats to pile on him mercilessly, given the threat he represents.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
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