Where is the nation’s lowest job growth? Look no further than rural California

Fast Break,For L.A. Times Subscribers

Terry Castleman March 26, 2024

Amid a population slowdown and housing crisis, California can add another distinction to its list of woes: lackluster job growth.

From September 2022 to September 2023, the number of employed people grew just .15%, the lowest figure of any state,

in the U.S,

according to a Times analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The data also showed that within the state, rural counties, especially those in the Central Valley, have endured some of the highest unemployment rates.

Imperial and Colusa counties, among the state’s smallest counties by population at

around about

20,000 residents each, were most dramatically effected, each with unemployment rates near 15% in that 12-month period.

Preliminary data from Feb. 2024 paint

s

an even darker picture, with Colusa County’s unemployment rate above 20% and Imperial County’s

over more than

17%,

per according to

the state Employment Development Department.

The EDD data puts 10 of the state’s 58 counties above 10% unemployment. All 10 are rural counties with a comparatively high proportion of farm jobs.

In California, agricultural employment is highest in the summer and lowest in the winter, though the gap has shrunk in recent decades, according to a study by U.C. Davis.

The weak job growth statewide was

due caused

in part by tech layoffs, which swept through the information sector, as well as contractions in finance, insurance and transportation, according to experts. Though cities have seen rates rise, rural counties have far higher unemployment rates.

Even with a strong national economy, the numbers show a “divergence of California with respect to the national trends,” said Julien Lafortune, a research fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California.

Those states with the most robust growth familiar job-creating rivals including Nevada, Texas and Florida saw growth rates more than

10ten

times higher than California’s.

In raw numbers, the Golden State is not only the most populous

state

but employs the most workers of any in the nation. California added more jobs from September 2022 to September 2023 than around half of of the other

U.S.

states: nearly 28,000. But California was still outmatched by Texas and Florida, which added the most jobs in the span, 342,000 and 239,000, respectively.

In January, California’s unemployment rate was second highest in the nation at 5.2%, barely trailing Nevada, per BLS data. It had risen from 4.5% a year prior.

The data suggest that while the state’s big cities grab headlines for mass layoffs and population loss, it is actually rural California that struggles most with unemployment.

In December 2022, the California counties with the highest rates of unemployment were all rural, and largely located in the Central Valley. Imperial, Colusa, Tulare, Merced and Plumas counties ranged between 7.5% and 15.2% unemployment.

As a housing crisis causes the state to sprawl, farther-flung counties are seeing more demand for housing, which makes it less affordable. The data suggest that employment opportunities may not be coming with increased population.

Tennessee, Massachusetts, Louisiana and Hawaii were the next four states with the lowest rates of job growth; each of those states had rates

of growth

two to four times higher than that of the Golden State.

On the other end of the spectrum, Alaska led the nation with 3.1% growth in that period, followed by Nevada, Texas, South Carolina and Florida, each of which reported job growth

over of more than

2.5%.

The country as a whole recorded 1.5% growth in the number of employed people during the span, according to BLS data.

One possible bright spot for California: weekly average wages were up 0.8% from September 2022 to September 2023, the 12th highest increase of any state.

Nationally, weekly average wages were flat over the same span, while consumer prices were up 3.7%, according to the BLS.

While other states could count on population growth to fuel their economies, California lost people in 2023 for the third consecutive year, a trend that experts attribute to high housing cost, crime and the ability to work remotely since the onset of the pandemic.

However, the population loss was slowing last year and experts say the state could soon get on the right track.

The weak employment numbers were a sign that “things are maybe slowing up in the economy,” and “not everyone’s doing as well as they were” in recent years, according to Lafortune.

At the state level, “what we want is more economic activity,” Lafortune said, with an associated increase in incomes for workers driving demand for goods and services.

Jobs numbers may follow suit this year: BLS data from early 2024

has

suggests a strengthening of the state’s job numbers, though the figures are provisional.