What a difference a year — or a couple of months with a massive label shakeup — can make.
The reorganization of the Universal Music Group that occurred in February — which loosely divided the music giant’s labels under two umbrellas, Republic Corps and the Interscope Capitol Labels Group (ICLG) — has created a new hegemony that effectively splits its industry-leading market share in half, meaning that Republic Corps’ Monte Lipman and ICLG’s John Janick sit atop label empires that, in a given week, can rival the Warner Music Group as a whole in terms of market share. (For Republic, given its partnership with Big Loud for Morgan Wallen and the eye-popping success of Taylor Swift and others, that was already the case at times last year.) In the first quarter of 2024, for example, both Republic Corps (13.69%) and ICLG (13.81%) put up current market share figures that are more than double the next-highest label from any other company.
Yet for comparison’s sake — and to get a sense of the trends in the market — we’ll set that reorganization aside for now, particularly as it happened in the midst of a quarter and thus doesn’t reflect the totality of the first three months of 2024. And even under the old alignment, Republic (which, even prior to the shift, encompassed Island, Big Loud, Mercury and Imperial) and Interscope (which similarly already included Geffen and Verve Label Group) still lead the pack for releases through the end of March.
Republic, on the strength of enduring hit albums by Wallen, Swift, Drake and Noah Kahan, as well as the huge success of the new Ariana Grande album eternal sunshine, posted a 12.84% current market share (defined as albums released within the past 18 months), only marginally coming down to earth from the eye-popping 13.47% full-year current share it posted in 2023, and a slight uptick over the 12.45% first quarter it enjoyed last year. Meanwhile, Interscope’s 9.10% current share is a big jump from the 7.75% it posted in the first quarter of 2023, and up from the full-year 8.80% it posted last year, with the enduring success of Olivia Rodrigo and breakout singles from Xavi (“La Diabla” and “La Victima”), among others, helping boost its position.
But perhaps the biggest story of the first quarter of 2024 has been the smash success of Warner Records, which surged from seventh place in Q1 2023 (5.23% current share) all the way to third in Q1 2024 (6.41%), reflecting the remarkable success the label has had on the Hot 100 so far this year. Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things,” Teddy Swims’ Hot 100 No. 1 “Lose Control” and Zach Bryan’s “I Remember Everything” feat. Kacey Musgraves are all among the top five songs of the year so far, while Bryan’s 2023 self-titled album and his 2022 album American Heartbreak are both among the top 20 albums of the first quarter. Warner — whose market share includes catalog label Rhino as well as Warner Latin and parts of Warner Nashville — continued to build on its 2023 trajectory, when it finished with a full-year current share of 5.96%.
That surge pushed Atlantic Records down into fourth place, at 5.14% current share, a drop of more than 2% from the 7.22% it maintained in Q1 2023. Atlantic — which includes 300 Elektra Entertainment in its market share — did have a big hit from Jack Harlow, whose single “Lovin’ On Me” topped the Hot 100 for five weeks in the first few months of the year. Atlantic’s hold on fourth, however, was only 0.01% above RCA Records, which came in at 5.13%, as the enduring strength of singles by SZA, Doja Cat and Tate McRae, combined with a viral smash from Flo Milli (“Cruel Summer”), kept the label in fifth place, despite dropping from 5.76% in Q1 2023, when the SZA album had a lock on the top of the Billboard 200.
Sticking in sixth place is Capitol Music Group — whose market share still contains indie distributor Virgin, as well as Quality Control/Motown, Capitol Christian, Astralwerks and Blue Note — which posted a 4.71% current share, down from 5.56% in the first three months of 2023. Dropping to seventh is Columbia, which includes some labels from indie distributor RED in its market share, at 3.71%, down from 5.85% a year ago. Though, in this particular ranking, Columbia is an unfortunate casualty of the end-of-March cutoff date; Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter debuted the week after with the biggest first week of the year, which will be reflected in the second quarter. In eighth, Epic Records saw a big boost, posting a 2.99% share (up from 2.06% last year), though that also seems like it will be trending higher in Q2, with the twin Future/Metro Boomin albums still growing. Sony Latin (2.38%, up from 1.92%) and Sony Nashville (2.08%, down from 2.30%) round out the top 10 in current market share.
Among the label groups, UMG’s dominance continued, with its 33.90% current share ticking up slightly from 33.59% in the first quarter of 2023, while Sony Music Group’s 26.91% came in lower than last year’s 28.46% — again, likely a quirk of the calendar. Still, despite Warner Records’ individual surge, the Warner Music Group’s overall current share slipped to 15.98%, down from 16.81% in Q1 last year. (WMG’s market share still contains 1.09% from BMG, despite the latter announcing that it would be ending its distribution arrangement with Warner; projects that were in the works prior to the agreement ending are still going through the Warner system, a BMG spokesperson says.) The big beneficiary in current market share is the independent sector, which grew its mark from 21.15% in Q1 last year to 23.21% this year by distribution ownership, a significant increase. Both the independent release of the chart-topping Ye and Ty Dolla $ign album Vultures 1 and the huge success of Mitski‘s “My Love Mine All Mine” contributed to the boost.
The numbers are more static when looking at overall market share, which includes back catalog, though the trends are still there: Universal (38.23%, up from 37.65%) and the indies (16.28%, up from 16.18%) both were up over Q1 2023, while Sony (27.23%, down from 27.62%) and WMG (18.26%, down from 18.55%) dipped. By label ownership, the independent sector remains larger than any individual major, accounting for 36.09% in overall market share, albeit down from the 37.38% it had in Q1 2023.
Among the individual labels, Republic’s huge current numbers pushed its overall market share above Interscope’s for first place, at 9.94%, up from 9.16% last year, while Interscope’s second-place showing at 9.85% still represented growth from its leading 9.44% last year. Atlantic’s strong catalog numbers meant that in overall share it remained in third place, at 7.65%, besting Warner Records, which jumped into fourth at 6.72%. Interscope, meanwhile, retained its top spot in catalog market share, at 10.09%, with Republic (9.03%) and Atlantic (8.43%) behind.
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